The UAE's departure from OPEC and OPEC+ on 1 May 2026 marks the most consequential shift in the group's 66-year history. With capacity approaching 4.85 million barrels per day, Abu Dhabi steps outside a quota framework that had become structurally incompatible with its investment ambitions. This fourth edition of our special report examines what the exit means for OPEC's supply management capacity, how production ramps up across three scenarios, and where the winners and losers sit across the global oil market as the Strait of Hormuz disruption masks a much larger structural shift.