Since late February 2026, disruption in the Strait of Hormuz has affected roughly a fifth of the world’s seaborne crude. It has also shown how much of the global energy system depends on a single waterway. Eight months on, Middle East barrels are coming back faster than the tankers, pipelines and refineries needed to move them. Brent still trades above $100 per barrel, freight and insurance remain expensive, and inventories are thin. The disruption has not slowed investment. Middle East greenfield approvals are heading for a record year, and producers are building new routes around the strait. Power and digital infrastructure are also becoming a second engine of growth. Decisions taken over the next two to three years will shape how resilient the region’s energy system becomes.