After months of relentless shocks, the tempo of new crises has slowed, but few have been resolved. Armed conflicts remain unresolved and political rivalries persist, but the immediate risk of major new disruptions has receded — at least for now. Behind the relative calm, however, lies a fragile and uneven landscape: energy trade routes are still vulnerable, diplomacy is fragile, and several actors remain one provocation away from escalation.

Note: This whitepaper is a condensed version of a report published in the Rystad Energy Navigator series, available exclusively to clients.