Fuel cell investment by data centers set to grow tenfold, reaching $30 billion by 2030

Data center developers are scrambling for reliable power, turning away from congested grids and toward on-site fuel cells. Rystad Energy research and analysis projects a tenfold increase in fuel cell market revenues by 2030, rising from around $2.8 billion in 2025 to roughly $30 billion, as AI computing demand drives unprecedented growth in data center construction. A contracted order book of approximately 9 gigawatts (GW), including framework agreements with Oracle, AEP, Equinix, and Brookfield, points to growing confidence among major operators in fuel cells as a viable long-term power source.

US grid interconnection timelines have tripled since 2015, now stretching to three to six years for large loads. Rystad Energy’s research projects 10.4 GW of cumulative fuel cell demand from data centers between 2026 and 2030, with around 40% of projected 2030 US data center capacity modeled as likely to pursue dedicated on-site power generation rather than grid connection. Unlike conventional grid connections or large gas plants, fuel cells can be deployed quickly and run on natural gas today, transitioning to biogas, renewable natural gas or hydrogen as supply matures, while producing lower on-site emissions than combustion alternatives. North America is expected to account for 91% of installed global on-site power generation capacity, thanks to a combination of grid delays, federal tax incentives and an established domestic supply chain .

Power availability has become one of the defining constraints on data center growth, and operators are increasingly looking beyond the grid for solutions. Fuel cells have moved from a niche application to a measurable part of the firm power mix. The question now is whether the supply chain can scale at the same pace as demand.

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Fuel cell manufacturers are expanding capacity in response. Aggregate operational and planned manufacturing output is on track to reach 4 GW per year by 2030, up from 1.8 GW today. Solid oxide fuel cells (SOFC) have become the dominant technology for always-on data center power, accounting for around 53% of cumulative stationary deliveries to date. Bloom Energy holds virtually every primary-load SOFC contract in the visible order book, a concentration that presents supply chain risk if demand accelerates faster than one manufacturer’s production capacity.

That concentration extends to materials. Bloom Energy’s SOFC technology depends on scandium, a critical metal used in its electrolyte chemistry. At full utilization of its planned 2 GW manufacturing expansion, Bloom’s theoretical scandium requirement would approach the size of the entire global market, currently estimated to be around 60 tonnes per year. This potential bottleneck is compounded by the fact that China heavily controls the global scandium supply chain. Competitors using alternative electrolyte chemistries do not share this exposure, and a sustained supply constraint could influence how market share develops as the sector scales. Rystad Energy projects SOFC system costs will fall 20 to 25% by 2030, though the pace will depend on manufacturers’ ability to reduce costs across the full delivered system, not the fuel cell stack alone

Contacts

Lein Mann Bergsmark
Vice President, Clean Tech Supply Chain Research
Phone: +47 24 00 42 00
Email: lein.mann@rystadenergy.com

Elliot Busby
Vice President, Head of Media and Communications
Phone: +47 40 02 41 94
Email: Elliot.busby@rystadenergy.com

About Rystad Energy

Rystad Energy is a leading global independent research and energy intelligence company dedicated to helping clients navigate the future of energy. By providing high-quality data and thought leadership, our international team empowers businesses, governments and organizations to make well-informed decisions.

Our extensive portfolio of products and solutions covers all aspects of global energy fundamentals, spanning every corner of the oil and gas industry, renewables, clean technologies, supply chain and power markets. Headquartered in Oslo, Norway, with an expansive global network, our data, analysis, advisory and education services provide clients a competitive edge in the market.

For more information, visit www.rystadenergy.com.