$100 oil could unlock 2.1 million bpd of additional South American crude supply

A sustained $100-per-barrel oil price could unlock up to 2.1 million barrels per day (bpd) of additional crude supply across South America by the mid-2030s, according to new analysis by Rystad Energy. The finding comes as the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz has forced a sharp upward revision in our forecasted average 2026 oil price, from $60 Brent per barrel in January to $89 per barrel today. At current production levels, government revenues across South America are expected to rise by approximately $43 billion this year alone relative to our base case, reinforcing hydrocarbons’ central role in public finance from Brasilia to Caracas. Across the region, Petrobras stands to gain the most: revenues are set to rise by $13.1 billion under the current $89 per barrel forecast versus January’s $60 per barrel baseline.

The Middle East conflict has done more than spike oil prices — it has exposed how dangerously concentrated global supply chains are around the Strait of Hormuz. South America is now positioned as the world’s most consequential source of incremental supply. The region offers scale, geologic quality and relative political stability at exactly the moment that the world is shopping for alternatives

Learn more with Rystad Energy’s Upstream solution.

Offshore developments in Brazil, Guyana and Suriname represent the most immediate source of upside. Fast-tracking projects across these markets could deliver more than 1 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (boepd) of additional production over the next decade, backed by approximately $33 billion in incremental greenfield capex through 2035. In Guyana, ExxonMobil is targeting up to 300,000 bpd from its Yellowtail project, which came online at an initial average production of 250,000 bpd, and Rystad believes identical debottlenecking could unlock and additional 80,000 to 90,000 bpd across the Errea Wittu, Jaguar and Hammerhead fields. However, the largest upside is in earlier final investment decisions (FIDs) of new projects, not expanding existing assets. Nevertheless, limited shipyard capacity for new floating production, storage and offloading vessels (FPSOs) remains the binding constraint.

Outside those three hubs, Venezuela has re-entered the global supply conversation following the January capture of President Nicolás Maduro and declining availability of medium-to-heavy sour crude from the Middle East. Under a $100-per-barrel scenario, Rystad Energy estimates Venezuela could add 910,000 bpd by 2035, with 57% coming from existing fields in the East and West provinces, where medium crude operating costs run at just $7 to $8 per barrel. ExxonMobil, whose CEO called Venezuela “uninvestable” in January, has since deployed technical teams to assess opportunities. Shell signed preliminary agreements with Venezuelan state player PDVSA in early March covering offshore gas and onshore exploration. All timelines remain contingent on sanctions relief and fiscal reform. The upside could be significantly higher if more players follow suit as investor confidence improves, driven by the presence of companies such as Chevron, Eni, Repsol and Shell. Increased participation in underdeveloped fields, particularly through partnerships with PDVSA, would further unlock additional production potential.

Argentina’s Vaca Muerta is the region’s most dynamic growth story. Crude production is forecast to reach 1 million bpd by end-decade, up from current production which is around 600,000 bpd and 1.5 million bpd by 2035 under the standard price strip. In a high case scenario, production could hit 1.8 million bpd, at which point the Vaca Muerta Oil Sur (VMOS) pipeline becomes the binding constraint. China is set to emerge as the primary export destination, with consistent crude shipments beginning in 2027.

 The pace of growth across South America will depend less on resource availability or economics and more on execution capacity, supply-chain constraints and the broader investment environment. Countries that provide clear fiscal and regulatory frameworks are better positioned to accelerate project sanctions and capture the upside from higher prices. Those that hesitate or are slow to move will simply watch the capital flow elsewhere.

Contacts 
Radhika Bansal
Senior Vice President, Oil & Gas Research
Phone: +47 24 00 42 00
radhika.bansal@rystadenergy.com

Sai Krishna
Analyst, Oil & Gas Research
Phone: +91 97 42 06 16 16
sai.krishna@rystadenergy.com

Flavio Menten
Senior Analyst, Oil & Gas Research
Phone: +55 219 849 321 40
flavio.menten@rystadenergy.com

Katie Keenan
Senior Media Relations Manager
Phone: +1 713 301 9300
katie.keenan@rystadenergy.com

About Rystad Energy 
Rystad Energy is a leading global independent research and energy intelligence company dedicated to helping clients navigate the future of energy. By providing high-quality data and thought leadership, our international team empowers businesses, governments and organizations to make well-informed decisions.

Our extensive portfolio of products and solutions covers all aspects of global energy fundamentals, spanning every corner of the oil and gas industry, renewables, clean technologies, supply chain and power markets. Headquartered in Oslo, Norway, with an expansive global network, our data, analysis, advisory and education services provide clients a competitive edge in the market. 

For more information, visit www.rystadenergy.com