Mideast war puts Vaca Muerta's million-barrel promise in the spotlight

As the Middle East conflict exposes the fragility of global supply chains built around the Strait of Hormuz, energy companies and importing nations alike are reassessing where the next generation of reliable barrels will come from. The Vaca Muerta Shale sits at the top of that shortlist, with Argentina throwing open 15 new exploration blocks in the play to international and domestic energy companies — the largest bid round since 2016 and more than double the six blocks offered in the previous provincial auction.

Vaca Muerta is the largest commercial shale play open to international exploration and production companies outside of North America and the play is already outperforming the US plays such as the Permian, Bakken and Eagle Ford on well productivity measures. Rystad Energy predicts that crude production from the basin is on course to reach more than 1 million barrels per day by the end of the decade.

Argentina is offering international companies their best organic entry point into Vaca Muerta in a decade. The basin is maturing fast, infrastructure is being built at pace, and the bid terms are designed to attract operators who can bring North American shale expertise to bear. For anyone who missed the first wave, this is the knock on the door they have been waiting for.

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The 15 blocks, offered through Neuquén provincial company Gas y Petróleo del Neuquén (GyP), span the full breadth of the play — from the condensate-rich northwest to the oil-heavy northeast and the more frontier southern fringe. Most transactions in the basin since the last provincial round have been inorganic, meaning primarily acquisitions and farm-in deals rather than fresh acreage. The timing reflects rising international appetite, most visibly demonstrated by the recent acquisition by US shale pioneer Continental Resources of a 90% stake in the Los Toldos II Oeste block and its subsequent farm-in to Pan American Energy assets. Well breakeven prices across the most prospective blocks run between $32 and $49 per barrel, which is competitive with many established global shale plays.

The appeal is not limited to overseas companies as local operators have an equally strong incentive to participate. Existing infrastructure connections, regional geology expertise and the strategic value of blocks adjacent to their current acreage make this a compelling opportunity for companies already operating in Neuquén.

Bidders will compete through a combination of working interest carried for GyP, royalties incrementally above the 15% minimum, work program commitments and an access bonus, with a minimum threshold of $500,000 per block. New entrants into Vaca Muerta will also need to overcome several operational and geological challenges to successfully de-risk and eventually develop these blocks. Some areas, particularly those closer to the deformation front and structurally complex regions, will require companies to have a strong understanding of local faulting, stress regimes, and landing zone variability. Beyond subsurface complexity, operators will likely need to establish a strong local organization and supply chain presence in Neuquén, as local relationships and operational experience have become increasingly important differentiators across the basin.

Vaca Muerta’s well productivity already rivals the best of the US Permian Basin on a normalized basis, and Argentina has spent the last several years quietly building the pipelines and export terminals needed to turn that geology into global supply. This bid round is the moment that the world’s most important non-US shale play formally invites the world in.

Contacts 

Jai Singh
Head, US Oil & Gas Research
jai.singh@rystadenergy.com

Thomas Schlosser
Vice President, Oil & Gas Research
thomas.schlosser@rystadenergy.com

Andres Villarroel
Senior Analyst, Oil & Gas Research
andres.villarroel@rystadenergy.com

Katie Keenan
Senior Media Relations Manager
Phone: +1 713 301 9300
katie.keenan@rystadenergy.com

About Rystad Energy 
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