Podcasts

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04 March 2026

How will Middle East conflict impact energy and the economy?

Let’s Talk Energy and look at the impacts of the conflict in Iran. After years of threats, indirect attacks and even a short-lived direct conflict in 2025, on 28 February, the US and Israel launched massive strikes on Iran, killing its Supreme Leader and others in its political and military organizations.

Episode description

Everyone at Rystad Energy’s thoughts are with our many colleagues, clients and all the people who are impacted by the conflict in the Middle East. Let’s Talk Energy and look at the impacts of the conflict in Iran. After years of threats, indirect attacks and even a short-lived direct conflict in 2025, on 28 February, the US and Israel launched massive strikes on Iran, killing its Supreme Leader and others in its political and military organizations. Iran’s oil production capacity is around 3.75 million barrels per day (bpd) and was exporting a little more than 1 million bpd – mostly to China – at the end of 2025. It also produces more than 250 billion cubic meters (Bcm) of natural gas annually for its own consumption and some regional exports and sits on one side of the critical chokepoint at the Strait of Hormuz. As of our taping at 10am US eastern time on Tuesday 3 March, retaliation by Iran and its proxies has almost completely halted traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, locking about 15 million barrels of oil per day and more than 77 million tonnes of LNG out of global markets, and attacked the Ras Tanura refinery in Saudi Arabia and the Ras Laffan LNG plant in Qatar, causing both to close as a precaution. - What has been the immediate impact on global oil, natural gas and product markets? - How long could the price spikes we are seeing last and what should we be watching to understand where markets are going next? - What are some potential scenarios for Iran’s future and what do they mean for its energy industry?