Saudi Aramco, the national oil company of Saudi Arabia, manages over 283 billion barrels of remaining recoverable resources, much of it low-cost, conventional crude. Aramco’s ability to increase or decrease production with precision, backed by world-class infrastructure, consistent investment and significant spare capacity, positions Saudi Arabia as a key stabilizing force in global oil markets. As US shale’s flexibility fades and exploration results remain limited, Saudi Arabia is well-placed to resume its traditional role as the global swing producer, with the capacity to influence supply and price throughout the next decade.

Meanwhile, Venezuela holds what some consider the world’s largest oil reserves, with estimates ranging as high as 300 billion barrels. Most of this resource is concentrated in the Faja de Orinoco, a vast belt of onshore extra-heavy crude. While technically recoverable, these resources require complex upgrading, robust infrastructure and long-term investment. Production, including from the national oil company PdVSA, has declined significantly in recent decades, due to underinvestment, operational challenges and international sanctions. Still, recent activity by select international companies, including Chevron, indicates that some areas remain commercially viable under the right conditions and with external technical support.

Unlocking Venezuela’s full potential as a major supplier would likely require broader structural changes at the institutional level. The operating environment for foreign investment has been severely constrained, and long-term recovery would depend on institutional stability, clear regulatory frameworks and an overall improved business climate. While it is difficult to predict political developments, any meaningful resurgence in output would likely hinge on a more normalized environment that can attract sustained capital and technical expertise, particularly from the United States and other Western nations. Given such conditions, Venezuela could re-establish itself as a significant supply source in the global oil mix.

Both Saudi Arabia and Venezuela were founding members of OPEC in 1960 and remain members today. Saudi Arabia continues to play a central leadership role within the group, while Venezuela's influence has diminished in recent years due to its lower production and limited market reach. In a heretofore unseen Venezuela, re-engaging with the global oil sector becomes fundamental, putting future alignment with OPEC’s production framework in question. Strategic flexibility, particularly for attracting external investment or managing new output, could eventually prompt a reevaluation of its role within the organization.

With global exploration underperforming and US shale nearing its production ceiling, the next decade will likely be shaped by those countries with existing, accessible reserves. Saudi Arabia is expected to anchor this phase, but Venezuela’s future remains an important variable. Should the country establish the conditions for recovery, its return into the global oil market could introduce new dynamics into what is otherwise becoming a more concentrated supply landscape. The evolution of these legacy producers may define the next chapter of global oil, not through new discoveries, but through the return and reinvention of those already holding the largest resource bases.