As output slows from the US shale sector, national oil companies in the Middle East, Asia, Africa and South America appear poised to play a leading role in the next wave of major oil and gas developments. Are we entering the “Age of the NOCs”? 

"Yes, you could say that. The shale revolution in North America fostered nearly all production growth in recent years, causing NOCs’ collective market share to fall from 61% in 2005 to 49% in 2025. But the tide is now turning. We forecast that more than half of all production growth between 2025 and 2030 will come from NOCs, thus lifting their market share back above 50%. Petrobras, CNOOC, CNPC, ADNOC, Saudi Aramco and Qatar Energy are the most prominent growth winners. These “super six” NOCs are projected to grow their combined market share of oil and gas production from 17.5% in 2024 to 21% in 2034. Last month, we gathered senior executives from some of the world’s leading NOCs for the Rystad Global Energy Club, an exclusive invite-only forum in Oslo. Attendees discussed this new era under the microscope of energy security, stability and strategic decision-making."

A remarkable power outage that brought much of Spain and Portugal to a standstill in late April has reignited concerns about vulnerabilities in the power mix, not only in Europe but also on a global level. What are your key observations about this event and the wider quest to nurture a secure energy mix?

"I was actually in Madrid that day, giving me first-hand experience of how it feels to be in a big city with no electricity. It was most dramatic for the 35,000 passengers that were stranded in the underground system or trapped in elevators. For the wider population, payment systems and internet connectivity were down, and most shops and restaurants just closed. A few brave restaurant owners served cold food, so we managed to get some food that day. But this event illustrated some of the vulnerabilities of modern societies. We still do not know the root cause of the blackout, but we do know that solar and wind delivered more than 80% of the electricity that day, which makes it more challenging to absorb a frequency disturbance. However, the Nordic system – serving Sweden, Norway, Denmark and Finland – relies heavily on non-fossil sources, which produced more than 96% of the region’s electricity in 2024 without any blackouts. This is at least one empirical example of how it is possible to operate a renewable energy system over time without disruptions."

You have an MSc in physics along with an academic background in philosophy and industrial economics. What advice would you share with those pursuing higher education today?

"I would advise students today to be sure to learn the intellectual “craft” around their respective professional disciplines, like using Python to run AI queries or simulations. Also, make sure you are studying together with fun and interesting people that challenge you. The intellectual environment is as important as the actual subject. And finally, try to influence your study programs to include project work that mimics real-world situations while avoiding an exaggerated focus on reproducing pure academic curricula."

Jarand Rystad, CEO.

Discover how collaboration among National Oil Companies (NOCs) can reshape the energy landscape and address future supply challenges. Gain insights into the strategic importance of NOC partnerships in ensuring global energy stability. Read the full insight.