This month, our CEO looks into his crystal ball and shares his key predictions for 2026, sounding in on energy price developments, acquisitions, and the evolving balance between green energy and hydrocarbons. He also weighs in on the ramifications of the COP30 climate summit in Brazil, looking specifically at where the planet stands in relation to the ambitious goal of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees. In a final prediction (driven perhaps less by data than by gut feeling), he takes a crack at the World Cup next year.
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Thought Leadership
Rystad’s Take: In conversation with our CEO, December
There were some encouraging results from the COP30 Summit in Brazil – including new initiatives and updated national climate plans that could cut global emissions by more than 25%. However, world leaders failed to agree on a fossil-fuel transition roadmap and skirted around issues related to critical minerals. Where does this leave the quest to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees?
The dialogue has evolved to encompass two gaps to the 1.5-degree ambition. First, there is an ambition gap relating to the nationally determined contributions (NDCs) – describing nations’ commitment to cut emissions through 2035 – which will now only limit global warming to 1.7 degrees. Thus, more ambitious targets are needed. Second, there is an implementation gap, whereby current policies and technologies are likely to reduce emissions by only 10% by 2035, well short of the 25% level that is targeted via the NDC pledges. According to our estimates, the world is now on a trajectory towards 1.9 degrees. However, two initiatives were launched at COP30 to address both gaps. First, the “Belem Mission to 1.5” was designed to support higher ambitions in NDCs by promoting stronger international cooperation across mitigation, adaptation and investment. Specifically, ambitions relating to the decarbonization of electricity and electrification of end-user applications must be doubled to reach the 1.5-degree target. The second initiative – the Global Impact Accelerator (GIA) – is designed to identify implementation bottlenecks, support capacity building, and facilitate the sharing of best practices. While these initiatives should be applauded, it seems increasingly unlikely that there will be sufficient momentum to deliver on the 1.5-degree target.
As we approach the end of another year, thoughts naturally turn to what lies ahead. Looking into your crystal ball, what's one major prediction you have for the energy world in 2026?
A year of upstream energy abundance lies in store in 2026, but with potential bottlenecks A year of upstream energy abundance lies in store in 2026, but with potential bottlenecks downstream. We can thus expect to see depressed primary energy prices, albeit with potential for healthy margins in some energy carrier and storage segments. However, the deeper primary energy prices fall in 2026, the more they will rebound in 2027 and 2028. The coming year could therefore be a good one for acquisitions and greenfield project contracting – particularly for players with deep pockets. It will also be a year in which the new hybrid energy reality – with a mix of green and fossil energy sources in all sectors – will be more visible than ever, with volatile price fluctuations in the power market and steady growth of electrification by end-users. Given the recent headwinds for green policies, decisions will be driven more by fundamental economics than policies.
Norway has, for the first time since 1998, qualified for the football (soccer) World Cup, spearheaded by superstar striker Erling Haaland. With or without Rystad data on the matter, how far do you expect Norway to go in the tournament, and which nation do you think will ultimately emerge as World Champions?
Fueled by an elite scoring talent in Haaland, along with fantastic team spirit, I believe Norway will make it all the way to the quarter-finals, but no further. I could see France taking out Germany in the semi-finals, but I’ll ultimately pick Brazil to win the championship. Vamos!
Jarand Rystad, Founder and CEO
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