Today, the center of gravity in global oil lies not with the Western supermajors, but with National Oil Companies (NOC). State-owned giants like Saudi Aramco, Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) and Petrobras now control roughly three-quarters of global oil reserves and over half of daily production. They are no longer just instruments of sovereignty—they are strategic actors in a complex and shifting energy landscape.

NOCs first emerged in the mid-20th century as expressions of political and economic independence. Spurred by anti-colonial sentiment and resource nationalism, countries in the Global South seized control of their oil wealth and established national champions. These companies served state goals—generating revenue, creating jobs and projecting political power. But in their early decades, they often lacked the technology, expertise and scale of the international oil companies (IOC) they displaced.

That gap has narrowed significantly. Through joint ventures, technical partnerships and foreign investment agreements, many NOCs have evolved into sophisticated, globally integrated players. Petrobras led deepwater innovation in Brazil with help from Shell and Total. Malaysia’s Petronas expanded globally through savvy partnerships and disciplined project management. Even in Venezuela, where state mismanagement has crippled output, Chevron’s ongoing operations show that external collaboration remains feasible and productive.

What’s more, NOCs are increasingly flexible in how they operate. Saudi Aramco has expanded its downstream footprint globally. QatarEnergy has aggressively grown its LNG presence with global partners. ADNOC has opened onshore and offshore blocks to international bidding, signaling a shift toward more commercial operating models.

Yet despite these advances, one critical form of collaboration remains underdeveloped: cooperation between NOCs themselves. Historically, such collaboration has been limited to production quotas under OPEC. But in an era of constrained supply, rising demand and mounting geopolitical tension, a deeper form of inter-NOC engagement is urgently needed.

Global exploration is underperforming. US shale is nearing its peak. Investment in large-scale conventional projects is lagging. Taken together, a supply shortfall is looming for the late 2030s, potentially exceeding 18 million barrels per day by 2040 if no new discoveries are made. Meeting that challenge will require more than IOC involvement—it demands a new kind of NOC-to-NOC cooperation.

The model is simple but powerful: joint development of underexplored basins, shared infrastructure in high-risk regions, coordinated investment in advanced recovery technologies and a common approach to mitigating political risk. Imagine Petronas and Sonangol co-investing in West African deepwater. Or Saudi Aramco and Kuwait Petroleum pooling resources for upstream R&D. Even PDVSA, under reformed leadership, could partner with Asian NOCs to reactivate Venezuela’s massive reserves.

The Seven Sisters once controlled the oil industry through private consolidation. Today, NOCs could stabilize it through sovereign cooperation. The world doesn’t need a new cartel. It needs a coalition, in which the national stewards of the world's remaining reserves work not only in parallel, but in partnership, to meet the energy challenges ahead.

***

To better understand how state-owned companies transform their portfolios, we created a NOC/INOC Corporate Strategy Benchmarking whitepaper series, divided into two parts: Volume 1: Oil & Gas and Volume 2: Sustainability. In these volumes, we compare the portfolio performance and strategies of seven NOCs as well as NOCs with international portfolios (INOCs).
Download the NOC/INOC Corporate Strategy Benchmarking Volume 1: Oil & Gas here.

Interested in learning more about our capabilities for National Oil Companies? Explore our services here.