What does the latest data tell us about the pace of the energy transition? Is the 1.5-degree target still within reach? Or are the headwinds that have hit green energy share prices recently evidence of a slower transition? And what will the energy landscape likely look like in 2030 – which is regarded as a significant milestone year for many players and countries.

These were some of the questions we addressed during our nine-session, nine-hour, live 2024 Energy Transition Marathon broadcast on 10 April.

In addition to presentations and updates from our own Rystad Energy thought leaders, we were very fortunate to host prominent experts from industry, sharing their insights and ambitions in driving their respective companies and industries forward. Although many have pointed to recent energy transition headwinds, numbers and data are telling us a different story. Hence, we are still optimistic that it is possible – albeit a momentous global undertaking – to deliver on the Paris Agreement. There are, however, huge ‘error bars’ on both the 2030 and 2050 outlooks, underscoring the many uncertainties and challenges that must be dealt with.

In pursuing the ambitious goals needed to reach net zero, there is no one-size-fits-all solution. To help companies and countries navigate the energy landscape and the energy transition, Rystad Energy has just released the first global database providing a bottom-up, sector by sector, country by country assessment of energy end-use. This database, with forecasts through to the end of this century, includes all scenarios from 1.4 to 2.5 DG and provides a detailed assessment of the likelihood of achieving these targets based on local starting points and maturation outlooks. The database also includes comprehensive studies of the supply chain’s ability to deliver.

The advisory arm of Rystad Energy is continuously advising leading energy companies and energy consumers on their smart journeys through the energy transition. In addition to our databases and analytics, advising on and developing company and country-specific strategies is strengthening our clients’ ability to truly see what is coming next, while also reinforcing our big-picture thinking.

So, what were some of the conclusions drawn in our 2024 Energy Transition Marathon?

Twenty-five core technologies will be driving the green transition forward, some more disruptively than others. Empirical evidence suggests that all these technologies are tracking towards the 1.5–1.9 DG range.

Solar PV continues to grow at a pace exceeding all expectations, with the supply chain over-delivering. This is truly a disruptive transformation. 

Some of the key questions related to the high pace of growth and whether the geographical concentration of the supply chain represents too much of a risk. We suggest that supply chains and the access to critical materials and metals will not be a bottleneck in the quest for net zero.

Efforts to cut methane emissions represent an upside that could reduce global warming by as much as 0.2 DG. This amounts to low-hanging fruit that is now being prioritized through initiatives such as the COP28 methane pledge.

The electrification of global energy systems will continue and, in turn, the end-use sectors will see energy growth despite a decline in primary energy demand. This is attributable to a significant reduction in energy losses. Storage will play a very important role in the future energy system.

Meanwhile, energy prices – which have remained largely flat for the past 50 years – will finally start to decline. There are, however, significant uncertainties surrounding the forward trajectory, and more policy support will be needed.

Ultimately, this will require ‘all hands on deck’. While some companies and countries will invest significantly in renewables and cleantech, many developing countries may initially need to prioritize ‘energy to all’ in their quest to eliminate energy poverty as a means to raise the standard of living.  

If you missed our updates and conversations, there is still time to sign up for the latest on the energy transition. We look forward to being a key participant in future discussions driving the process towards achieving net zero by 2050.