US President Donald Trump has been extremely busy since returning to the White House five weeks ago, and players across all energy markets have had their hands full trying to understand the implications of the new policies that have been announced thus far. How will the proposed new tariffs impact supply chains, trading patterns, and energy supply and demand projections? Will America’s withdrawal from the Paris Climate Agreement effectively derail the energy transition? What will be the response from the world’s largest buyers and producers of energy?

Within his first month back in the Oval Office, Trump took 13 administrative actions that have direct implications for energy markets. He swiftly unveiled steps to maximize domestic oil and gas production, while reversing many of the green initiatives rolled out by his predecessor Joe Biden. This is poised to deal a particularly heavy blow to the offshore wind industry, while the implications are more blurry for the hydrogen, CCUS and bioenergy sectors. The solar market, thanks to its higher cost efficiency, appears to be in fairly good shape.

However, the Trump policy announcements that created the most buzz – and that will likely have the greatest initial impact on energy markets – are those that apply to tariffs targeting imports from Canada, Mexico, Europe, and China. If implemented as prescribed, these tariffs will severely disrupt existing trade patterns and put a heavy strain on supply chains.

These measures are labeled by the administration as a means to combat the $1 trillion trade deficit recorded by the US last year, but what would be the actual effect if such forceful trade barriers were to be erected? US industries that are reliant on imports could be forced to choose between paying a much higher price for their imported goods and materials or scaling back their operations and delaying projects while efforts are made to boost domestic production of the goods in question.

In the latest iteration of our Rystad Talks Energy series, we assess the implications of these latest signals from the White House and explore the fundamental forces reshaping the global energy landscape. Our senior experts offer detailed insights into the global oil supply outlook, with particular emphasis on segments poised for high growth, while also examining the shifting sands of global demand.