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Thought Leadership

Note from the CEO - January 2025

US President Donald Trump’s cascade of executive orders since his inauguration on 20 January included many that targeted the energy sector. He also provided some clues at an ensuing press conference about other initiatives that could materialize in the coming weeks with direct implications for oil markets. So, will the sum of his actions be bullish or bearish for oil? Or, another way to frame the same question: Is his primary objective to help consumers get cheaper access to energy, or to help oil companies increase their profit?

US President Donald Trump’s cascade of executive orders since his inauguration on 20 January included many that targeted the energy sector. He also provided some clues at an ensuing press conference about other initiatives that could materialize in the coming weeks with direct implications for oil markets. So, will the sum of his actions be bullish or bearish for oil? Or, another way to frame the same question: Is his primary objective to help consumers get cheaper access to energy, or to help oil companies increase their profit?

In our first Rystad Talks Energy webinar this year we will discuss 11 factors influencing the demand or supply side of oil. Of these, four factors could be seen as bearish, as three of them will increase oil supply and one will reduce oil demand. The other seven factors could be seen as bullish, as three factors will increase oil demand, while four factors could – if implemented – reduce the flow of oil from countries like Mexico, Canada, Iran and Venezuela. In sum, we see the impact as quite balanced, with no tangible changes to our slightly bearish view of the oil market. In short, we still expect to see oil supply grow more rapidly than oil demand over the next few years. 

We will also discuss the impact on other energy sectors. Clearly Trump is not supporting the green shift, but there will still be green inertia in the US in 2025. About $150 billion of investments are earmarked for non-fossil energy sources in the US this year, matching the volume of forecasted investments in the oil and gas sector. 

In our webinar, Rystad Talks Energy, senior Rystad Energy experts will also weigh in on gas markets and the balancing act between low-carbon initiatives and traditional oil and gas, with a spotlight on the Middle East. Key discussions include the impact of inflation, capacity challenges, and market saturation on rigs and wells, as well as trends in capex and opex strategies. Insights will be shared on how geopolitical risks and local versus global EPC dynamics are reshaping the Middle East’s supply chain sectors.

Finally, we will assess the global evolution of upstream activities – with offshore emerging as the new growth frontier and with gas rising as the dominant resource – and we will evaluate short-term and long-term OPEC scenarios and the potential for renewables to disrupt traditional energy markets.