Venezuela’s oil sector comeback accelerated by majors and newcomers

Venezuela’s upstream oil sector is attracting its broadest pool of international operators and capital in decades, with established majors expanding their footprints and new operators entering under revised contractual frameworks. If capital deployment, rig availability and oilfield services scale in line with requirements, Rystad Energy models Venezuelan crude production reaching around 1.6 million barrels per day (bpd) by 2028 and 1.8 million bpd by 2030.

The roster of companies now actively looking to expand or operate in Venezuela is genuinely different from anything we have seen in years. Established operators are taking on larger roles and new names are entering the market. A wider group of operators should help mobilize the capital and activity needed to rebuild rigs, oilfield services and infrastructure across the entire supply chain.

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Chevron has added Carabobo-1 and Carabobo-2-Sur-A to its portfolio and outlined more than $7 billion in investment over five years. Eni has taken exclusive operatorship of Junin 5 under a new 25-year production participation contract. Repsol has regained operational control at Petroquiriquire, and Shell has re-entered through redevelopment agreements for Carito and Pirital. New entrants include regional independent GeoPark, Texas-based Hunt Oil and Brazilian independent Fluxus Oil, Gas & Energy, while North American Blue Energy Partners (NABEP) has substantially expanded its existing position through a framework covering 17 producing and development areas.

Rystad Energy favors investment programs tied to established operators and defined assets over larger ambitions requiring substantial external capital. NABEP’s $100 billion figure represents a long-term funding requirement, not committed near-term capital, and the company has not disclosed a detailed financing structure. The more binding constraint is operational, with Baker Hughes reporting just two active drilling rigs in Venezuela as of August, against a Hydrocarbons Ministry target of around 93 rigs by 2028. The oilfield services supply chain is beginning to rebuild, SLB has around 15 rigs positioned in Venezuela that could potentially be reactivated within a year.

Overall, Rystad estimates activity would need to reach around 50 rigs by 2028 and nearly 80 by 2030 to support the modeled production pathway. A number of newly identified opportunities were previously associated with Russian and Chinese operators, and further restructuring of some legacy positions remains possible as the new contractual framework develops.

Near-term production growth will be predominantly brownfield-led, with incremental barrels coming from field rehabilitation, well reactivations and infill drilling across NABEP’s Lake Maracaibo portfolio, Chevron’s Petropiar and Petroboscan assets, Eni’s Corocoro field and GeoPark’s Bare block. NABEP’s three production participation contracts have already demonstrated what renewed investment can deliver: NABEP had already begun changing this picture through its involvement in the former Russian-linked Petrozamora operations around Lake Maracaibo - combined production from those assets appears to have risen from roughly 90,000 bpd at end-2024 to nearly 200,000 bpd today.

The transition to greenfield-led growth will follow in the 2030s, anchored by Chevron’s Ayacucho 8, Eni’s Junin 5 and NABEP’s newly awarded Orinoco blocks. In Rystad’s modeled upside scenario, this combination could lift Venezuelan crude production to around 2.58 million bpd by 2035, with the incremental volumes almost evenly split between brownfield and greenfield additions.

Further upside is possible as investor interest broadens. Continental Resources has signed a preliminary agreement for Ayacucho 2, ExxonMobil is in discussions over a potential return, TotalEnergies has signed an MoU with PDVSA covering new hydrocarbon opportunities, and a Turkish-linked investor is moving ahead with investment in the producing CEMA field. On the services side, Halliburton has also signed agreements with Eneva and WESCA to pursue oil and gas development opportunities. Even so, the pace will remain conditional on actual capital deployment and Venezuela’s ability to rebuild drilling, services and infrastructure capacity.

Contacts 
Radhika Bansal
Senior Vice President, Oil and Gas
radhika.bansal@rystadenergy.com

Vadranam Sai Krishna
Analyst, Oil and Gas
vadranam.krishna@rystadenergy.com

Flavio Menten
Lead Analyst, Upstream
flavio.menten@rystadenergy.com

Katie Keenan
Senior Media Relations Manager
Phone: +1 713 301 9300
katie.keenan@rystadenergy.com

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