Global Energy Scenarios 2025

The next energy era

A new energy era is taking shape

The global energy system is entering its next great transition, from molecules to electrons.
The 2025 edition of Rystad Energy’s flagship Global Energy Scenarios report explores the emergence of a new energy era. Over the past decade, energy sources of the next era have grown from roughly 9% of global primary energy in 2015 to more than 14% in 2025, marking one of the fastest structural shifts in modern energy history.

Each previous era - biomass, coal, oil and gas - reshaped economies and societies. The coming decades will be no different. Technological breakthroughs, investment cycles, and coordinated policies are reinforcing one another, driving down costs and accelerating adoption worldwide. Transitions take time, but once tipping points are crossed, change becomes unstoppable.

Five pathways shaping the global outlook

This report explores five distinct futures for the world’s energy system, from current national commitments (NDC) to Rystad Energy’s House View and three IPCC-aligned temperature pathways: 1.6-degrees, 1.9-degrees, and 2.2-degrees.

Built on IPCC carbon-budget science and Rystad Energy’s proprietary Energy Scenario Model, the analysis spans 217 countries, over 60 economic subsectors, and more than 70 energy carriers.

Across baseline pathways, emissions are projected to peak in the near future before entering decline. The House View closely follows a 1.9-degree trajectory, below the upper range of the Paris Agreement but short of full alignment. Achieving 1.6 °C would require far stronger policy signals, faster clean-energy deployment, and coordinated investment across sectors.

More from less: the efficiency transformation

Today’s energy system is deeply inefficient. Over half of all primary energy is lost before providing useful services. The transition challenge is not to replace all primary energy, but to deliver the same or greater useful energy with far lower losses.

Across Rystad Energy’s scenarios, useful energy, the energy that truly drives modern life, continues to grow steadily, even as primary energy peaks and declines. This reflects the impact of electrification and efficiency gains that are transforming how energy is produced and consumed, enabling a system that does more with less, powered by clean electrons.

Renewables accelerate as the backbone of new power growth

Renewables are expanding faster than any previous energy technology, led by record additions of solar, wind, and battery storage. Solar continues to anchor global power growth, while wind and storage scale alongside it to strengthen flexibility and reliability across the grid.

Together, these technologies are reshaping how the world generates and balances electricity.

Three tasks for the next energy era

Achieving net zero rests on three essential tasks: cleaning up and expanding the power sector, electrifying end-use demand, and addressing residual emissions. The power sector delivers the most significant and fastest cuts, electrification drives deeper change, and tackling the residual completes the path toward a low-carbon system.

NDCs bring a new perspective to the global outlook

This year’s report introduces Rystad Energy’s NDC scenario, capturing the impact of countries’ stated climate pledges under the Paris Agreement. By comparing the NDC pathway with our house view and long-term temperature scenarios, the analysis highlights how national targets reshape the near-term trajectory of global emissions and the growing divide between ambition and action.

Investment momentum shifts to low-carbon technologies

Capital is flowing faster toward low-carbon technologies than ever before. By 2025, clean energy investment surpasses oil and gas, marking a structural turning point in global energy finance.

Low-carbon spending has tripled over the past decade while fossil investment remains flat, and grid infrastructure is emerging as a critical enabler of renewable integration. The installed base may change slowly, but investment leads the way, shaping the energy system of 2035 and beyond.