The first round of the Bolivian presidential election took place on 17 August, with the leftwing Movimiento al Socialismo (MAS) suffering a historic defeat after nearly two decades in power. MAS nominee, Eduardo del Castillo, managed only about 3% of the vote, while right-leaning Quiroga secured 27% and the more centrist Paz garnered 32%. The runoff is scheduled for 19 October, and the shift away from MAS’s long dominance is likely to bring about a new era in the country's energy policy. It could potentially alter the course of the gas industry and its relationships with neighboring countries, such as Argentina and Brazil.

Bolivia's upstream sector, once open to private investment in the 1990s, where major oil and gas companies participated in the gas production increase in the country. Future country actions led to the resources nationalization in 2006, with YPFB being responsible for the reserves and gas commercialization. Bolivia's natural gas production has been declining since 2014, threatening to turn the country into a net importer within the next decade. Despite recent discoveries like the Mayaya field, the long-term outlook remains bleak. In 2014, gas exports accounted for 46.5% of Bolivia's total exports, amounting to $6.01 billion out of $12.90 billion. However, by 2024, this share had plummeted to 18.1% ($1.61 billion out of $8.92 billion).

Quiroga and Paz have both acknowledged the concern surrounding the country's declining natural gas production in their campaign proposals. While both candidates aim to boost gas output, they have distinct approaches to achieving this goal. Quiroga's proposal involves providing subsidies to producers to encourage increased production, whereas Paz advocates for a combination of legal and fiscal incentives, accompanied by a reduction in subsidies. Notably, Argentina has significantly reduced its imports from Bolivia since 2024 due to the increased production from the Vaca Muerta field, making Brazil a likely target market for Bolivian gas exports.

Additionally, Quiroga supports investment in renewable energy, recognizing that approximately 70% of Bolivia's interconnected electricity generation comes from thermoelectric plants, which are primarily fueled by natural gas. This gas, in turn, competes with export markets, as the same resource is used to meet both domestic demand and international commitments. By reducing domestic demand for gas through alternative energy sources, more gas would become available for export, providing a potential boost to Bolivia's economy. Quiroga's proposal to invest in renewable energy can be seen as a strategy to reduce the country's internal gas consumption, thereby freeing up more gas for export and generating additional revenue. Power demand has traditionally represented between 40% and 50% of Bolivia's overall domestic gas consumption.

Both presidential candidates propose cutting subsidies in the domestic market, where gas is currently sold at a significantly lower price than in exports. Considering reference prices over the last 12 months, noting that Bolivia sells gas to Petrobras in Brazil at between $6 and $7 per MMBtu, whereas domestically, the price is approximately from $1.0 to $1.4 per MMBtu, highlighting a substantial disparity.

Quiroga and Paz both aim to boost natural gas exports to Brazil and Argentina, while improving the legal framework to attract foreign investment and reverse the nationalization of the energy sector. By providing a stable business environment, they hope to encourage foreign firms to develop the country's energy reserves, increasing gas production and exports. However, new upstream investments will take time to materialize, especially if they are located far from existing infrastructure. Despite the success of the proposed exploration and production efforts are not guaranteed, measures should be taken to incentivize foreign capital once both candidates recognize that increase the gas production is unlikely to be done only with internal companies.

The success of Bolivia's efforts to increase gas production could have significant impacts on Argentina and Brazil. For Argentina, Vaca Muerta’s gas production is expected to be higher than domestic demand, and find new export markets is a must. More stability over the Bolivian gas sector could provide a reliable route to export gas to Brazil, but it could also lead to increased competition for the pretended export volumes due to the high distances from Vaca Muerta to Brazil that imply in additional costs. Meanwhile, for Brazil, a surge in Bolivian gas availability would enhance supply security through the Bolivia-Brazil pipeline, operated by Transportadora Brasileira Gasoduto Bolivia-Brasil (TBG). In addition, Nova Transportadora do Sudeste (NTS) and TBG have planned investments to upgrade their pipeline infrastructure, aiming to increase the capacity to transport pre-salt gas to the TBG grid, amidst declining Bolivian production. Furthermore, a potential increase in Bolivian gas supply could be capitalized on by private agents in Brazil, who have already demonstrated a trend towards greater diversity in importing Bolivian gas, potentially leading to a more competitive and dynamic market in Brazil.

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