SAF mandate

The UK launched its ambitious SAF mandate on 1 January last year, obliging fuel suppliers to blend 2% SAF into jet fuel, marking the start of a long-term transition. The policy lays out a phased trajectory: 3.6% this year; 10% by 2030; and 22% by 2040. Initial data indicates SAF blending reached around 1.6% from January to early October last year, pointing to the hurdle of meeting the full-year 2% target. A potential shortfall in the first year would already stretch the UK aviation sector, as the mandate percentage rises this year and domestic SAF supply will take several more years to ramp up.

Historical consumption, jet fuel blending and trend-based supply

UK SAF supply has scaled up steadily in recent years, rising from 1,670 barrels per day (bpd) in 2023 to 5,650 bpd in 2024 (Figure 1). The spike in reported SAF supply in December 2024 largely reflects certification and reporting timing rather than a surge in actual deliveries, with more than a third of 2024 supply claimed in that month. The 5,650 bpd delivered in 2024 represented around 2.1% of UK jet fuel supply (Figure 1), already exceeding the 2% blend required by the mandate starting in 2025. This trend likely persisted last year, making it crucial to monitor year-end compliance.

Supply last year began slowly as suppliers waited to observe market conditions and negotiate favorable contracts. Deliveries scaled up in the second half of the year as compliance pressure increased, with major certifications expected in December (Figure 1). According to the Department for Transport, actual SAF supply from January to early October last year reached 2,809 bpd, representing a SAF blend of approximately 1.6% - a 20% shortfall at that point. However, since SAF supply is not officially certified until the end of the year, the final figures are likely to be higher. Based on trend-driven supply from the previous year, the UK could yet be shown to have met the 2% mandate by the end of 2025, although the full year-end data will ultimately confirm compliance (Figure 1).

About 90% of the UK's SAF supply is imported. Domestically, only the Phillips 66 Humber refinery produces SAF at scale, co-processing SAF for the domestic market.

Outlook: SAF capacity, risked capacity and mandated demand

The UK's SAF project pipeline is still in its early stages, as it largely cannot rely on operational domestic projects. However, the outlook is strong, with significant ramp-up expected in the coming years. The UK pipeline is one of the world's most technologically diverse, spanning HEFA, gasification-Fischer Tropsch (Gas/FT), alcohol-to-jet (AtJ), methanol-to-jet (MtJ), and PtL technologies, with total announced capacity across all projects expected to reach 23,000 bpd by 2030 (Figure 2).

HEFA will play a relatively minor role in future capacity relative to other countries scaling up SAF, constrained by the HEFA cap under the UK SAF mandate, which limits how much HEFA-based SAF can count toward compliance. AtJ and MtJ technologies are expected to contribute more, while Gas/FT and especially PtL will drive capacity growth, with PtL alone projected to account for more than one-third of total capacity by 2030 (Figure 2).

Accounting for 12 different risk parameters - such as project complexity, technology readiness and feedstock supply - upcoming SAF projects are projected to deliver a risk-adjusted capacity of about 11,000 bpd by 2030. By comparison, achieving a 10% SAF share in 2030 requires approximately 26,000 bpd (Figure 2). Even with successful scaling of multiple projects, this means less than half of the required SAF could come from domestic production, underscoring that the UK will remain heavily reliant on imports.

Outlook

By 2030, the UK is poised to have one of the most advanced and diversified SAF pipelines, with HEFA constrained by the mandate's cap and policy support tilting investment toward next-generation pathways. Domestic production should expand beyond today's co-processing volumes, but imports are still likely to cover a large share of supply, given the gap between risk-adjusted capacity and mandated demand. In the first compliance year, DfT data from January to early October this year points to an around 1.6% SAF blend, suggesting a potential shortfall unless year-end certifications and late-year deliveries lift the full-year total toward the 2% target. Even so, the UK remains among the earlier adopters of mandated SAF blending, with the next test being whether domestic projects progress fast enough as the HEFA cap tightens and PtL obligations begin.

Authors:

Lars Klesse
Analyst, Biofuel Research
Lars.Klesse@rystadenergy.com

Thomas Heerschap
Deputy Product Manager BioEnergy Solution
thomas.heerschap@rystadenergy.com

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