Insights
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Analysis
Caspian region emerges as a powerhouse for free cash flow
The Caspian region's energy landscape is a complex interplay of investment strategies, market dynamics and geopolitical considerations. The region – encompassing the likes of Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan – is a major player in global energy markets due to its substantial oil and natural gas reserves. To successfully navigate energy transition, Caspian countries must adopt a balanced approach, attracting international investment by leveraging their resources while preparing for sustainable energy pathways and creating new revenue streams for future economic prosperity.
To identify the regions generating the most cash for majors, we forecast the group’s top five projects by cumulative free cash flow for the period 2025 to 2030. Two standout regions are the Permian shale play, which dominates the US majors' portfolios, and the Caspian region, where all majors have maintained their presence despite portfolio streamlining
Chevron’s projected $28 billion in free cash flow from Kazakhstan’s Tengiz field underscores the region's value to its portfolio. ExxonMobil's $14 billion in revenue from Tengiz further emphasizes the field's prominence, making it the second highest in the company's global portfolio. BP's operations in the Caspian are equally critical, with the Shah Deniz gas project in Azerbaijan forecast to deliver $6 billion in free cash flow. Finally, the Kashagan field is forecast as the highest cash flow generator for TotalEnergies and Eni, and the third highest for Shell, at $5 billion for each company.
The Caspian region remains a cornerstone of global energy supply and a key area of strategic interest for international investors. With substantial reserves, established infrastructure and a proven record of successful partnerships, countries such as Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan continue to attract major foreign capital through favorable contractual frameworks and reliable production growth. Meanwhile, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan are gradually enhancing their investment environments, signaling an openness to deeper international collaboration.
Despite evolving global market conditions, the Caspian’s vast resource base and advantageous location between Europe and Asia ensure its continued relevance in the global energy landscape. To sustain growth and strengthen competitiveness, Caspian nations will need to maintain transparent investment regimes, modernize regulatory frameworks and foster technological innovation. By doing so, they can maximize the long-term value of their hydrocarbon wealth and solidify their position as reliable energy partners on the world stage.
Authors:
Olga Savenkova
Head of Corporate Research
olga.savenkova@rystadenergy.com