The precedent for politicized energy policy in the region is well known. The 1973 Arab oil embargo remains the most prominent example of hydrocarbons being wielded as geopolitical leverage. But in the decades since, Gulf NOCs have moved away from direct entanglement in regional conflicts, particularly Arab-Israeli or Iranian-Israeli hostilities. Instead, they have matured into commercial and strategic instruments aligned with national agendas focused on long-term stability, economic diversification, and global market integration.

This evolution is being tested now. The US strikes on Iran’s nuclear infrastructure – targeting sites at Fordow, Isfahan and Natanz – represent a dangerous new phase in the regional dynamic. Iran swiftly launched retaliatory missile fire against US bases in Qatar, and Israel briefly continued its air campaign before the warring parties reached an initial ceasefire agreement – albeit a fragile one. Yet Gulf NOCs have not altered course. Their restraint signals more than tactical caution, it reflects a deeply embedded understanding: regional volatility is no longer a theater for symbolic defiance, but a risk to national transformation.

Nowhere is this shift more visible than in Saudi Arabia, where the energy-security calculus has changed significantly. The 2023 China-brokered détente between Riyadh and Tehran demonstrated the Kingdom’s new preference for diplomacy over rivalry. Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 – anchored in economic diversification, foreign investment and tourism – requires a predictable geopolitical environment. Aramco, as the custodian of global spare oil production capacity, plays a stabilizing role in global markets. Its swift recovery from the 2019 Abqaiq attacks, and its current operational normalcy despite escalating US-Iran tensions, exemplify that strategic posture. Energy disruption today would undercut not just exports, but the broader socioeconomic transformation underway.

For the United Arab Emirates, the story is one of preemption and geopolitical hedging. ADNOC, shaped by the UAE’s commercially agile foreign policy, has positioned itself as a neutral, dependable supplier even as regional tensions peak. The Abu Dhabi Crude Oil Pipeline (ADCOP), which routes crude from Habshan to Fujairah on the Gulf of Oman, bypasses the Strait of Hormuz entirely, providing a crucial redundancy in case of maritime disruption.

QatarEnergy faces a unique challenge. As the world’s top LNG exporter and co-owner of the North Dome field with Iran, Qatar must walk a narrow diplomatic line. Despite Doha’s alignment with Western markets, it has remained publicly neutral amid US and Israeli military action. This weekend’s strikes did not trigger any disruption in Qatari LNG exports, and QatarEnergy continues to focus on long-term expansion projects in Asia, Europe and the US. Its posture is one of silent insulation, ensuring supply continuity while avoiding political entanglement that could jeopardize shared infrastructure with Iran – although with the recent strikes this may prove difficult.

Underlying these different approaches is a shared foundation: infrastructure-led resilience. The Gulf’s energy strategy is no longer just about barrels and volumes, it’s about route diversification and systemic durability. Egypt’s Sumed pipeline, which connects the Red Sea and Mediterranean and is backed by Gulf shareholders, has recently expanded its capacity from 5 million to 7 million barrels per day. These and similar investments help decouple oil exports from the region’s most volatile maritime corridors.

Each NOC mirrors its government’s geopolitical posture. Aramco offers conservative market stewardship, ADNOC balances global agility with diplomatic neutrality, and QatarEnergy maintains deliberate ambiguity while expanding LNG dominance. But all are aligned in one respect: they will not be baited into confrontation, even when the world’s largest military powers exchange missiles across their borders.

As the Iran-Israel conflict enters a new and unfamiliar phase, with the US now fully engaged, Gulf NOCs are not changing course. Unless physical infrastructure or export routes are directly targeted, their focus will remain on operational continuity, global trust, and strategic discipline. In a region too often defined by volatility, the Gulf’s energy giants are offering something of the utmost value: a stabilizing center of gravity. By combining improved diplomacy, infrastructure investments, and commercial maturity, they are building an energy architecture that is both profitable and increasingly impervious to the very instability that surrounds it.

Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author, and do not necessarily represent the views or beliefs of Rystad Energy. 

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