Real-time consumption modelling ensures early price signals are caught

A multinational commodity trading company wanted to capture early divergence between its underlying assumptions and actual road fuel demand trends. With national demand statistics published with a few months of delay, real-time road-fuel modelling lets the company identify and quantify demand divergence, as well as test forecast accuracy and bias to translate granular data into regional views.

Partnering with Rystad Energy: Real-time consumption monitoring at daily granularity

Rystad Energy collaborated with the gasoline and distillate analyst teams, utilizing our real-time consumption model, to bridge that gap. This solution delivers daily activity modelling for personal vehicles and trucking, which can be translated into consumption indices for gasoline and diesel. This data was used to produce a weekly report that compared two views side by side: the Rystad Energy model and the client's internal forecast. Country-level statistical divergence metrics highlighted systematic over- or underestimation bias over time. Insights were aggregated bottom up, from countries to trading regions, producing a consolidated signal for Northwest Europe.

The analysis was particularly impactful for smaller countries with limited forecast data available, as well as for larger economies such as Germany and France, where even modest forecast errors can materially shift regional price signals. Detecting shifts, for example, moving from underestimation to overestimation within a season, helped the team catch inflection points earlier and react in the market.

Results: Real-time demand signals help cut the uncertainty window

With daily demand indicators, the team narrowed the two-month uncertainty window and aligned decisions with near real-time fundamentals. The weekly comparisons made forecast bias visible and actionable, enabling rapid recalibration at the country level, while preserving a sharp, aggregated view for Northwest Europe. The result was a more timely, transparent signal that helped the trader prioritize what causes market movements and adjust strategies with greater confidence.

Rystad Energy is committed to client confidentiality. Names have been altered for privacy.