What does the latest data tell us about the pace of the energy transition? And what do we think the energy landscape will look like in 2030, an obvious milestone year to measure progress on the road to reaching net zero? The most important barometer will not be the exact level of global emissions in 2030, but rather the trajectory of adoption of technologies that will eventually outcompete coal, oil and gas. These technologies include solar, wind, batteries, electrolyzers, and EVs. 

Consider that 2 billion CDs were sold worldwide in 2005, even as music streaming was starting to take off and one could already ascertain with confidence that CD players would soon disappear from the market. This phenomenon – in which outdated technologies are completely replaced by new technologies – was called “creative destruction” by the Austrian-American economist Joseph Schumpeter. Over the years, popular items such as steam engines, film cameras and tube TVs all suffered this fate, and a similar trend can be seen for numerous energy-related technologies, such as thermal power plants, residential gas burners, and diesel cars.

By 2030, we will most likely have a precise understanding of when solar, wind and electrical transportation will reach full penetration and “destruct” current technologies. Our analysis shows that energy technologies that are currently responsible for about 60% of all carbon dioxide emissions are approaching the stage where they will face creative destruction – even without extraordinary policy measures. In our upcoming Energy Transition Marathon on 10 April, we will review these technologies and discuss the pace of change that lies ahead. The remaining emissions will stem largely from technologies and processes that will still need policy support for some years. We will also discuss which policies will be needed and whether these policies will be at risk given political developments, including what to expect from numerous key elections this year.  

The power sector is poised to be the first energy market struck by creative destruction of existing technologies. Even before solar and wind have reached truly disruptive cost levels, four European countries – Spain, Portugal, Denmark and Finland – have already seen fossil fuel’s share of the power mix fall from about 60% to 15% over the past 20 years. In our newly developed country-by-country perspectives, we will showcase how this might be accelerated for other countries as creative disruption comes into play.

These are just some of the topics we will address initially in the March edition of Rystad Talks Energy and later in our annual flagship event, the 2024 Energy Transition Marathon.

Rystad Talks Energy on 21 March will focus on emissions. We are truly honored to be joined by Matt Kolesar, Chief Environmental Engineer and Head of Sustainability at ExxonMobil, who will share his perspectives on the opportunities and challenges related to carbon markets and reducing emissions.

We also hope you will sign up for our nine-hour Energy Transition Marathon program on 10 April, when we will address how much progress will likely be made by 2030 within energy policies and energy-related outcomes. We have an amazing line-up of prominent guests, so please stay tuned for a unique live event with the latest insights across the energy spectrum.