The geopolitical scenery is shifting rapidly these days, with energy markets playing a key role. What are the potential ramifications of the stronger ties being forged between China, Russia and India – alongside the heightened tensions seen between the US and each of those three eastern powerhouses?

The door is now open for China to compete for the role as the world’s leading superpower. One of the key avenues for China lies in the green transition, where it stands as the preeminent global provider of the materials and equipment needed to build solar, wind, battery, grid and EV fleets. Furthermore, China now offers direct participation and financing in these sectors, as launched at the recent Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) meeting that was attended by 24 heads of state. Through this mechanism, countries like Pakistan can boost their power generation capacity at greater speed and lower cost than ever before. Instead of competing to raise its market share and influence in this arena, the US has been derailing green initiatives and increasing tariffs on India and many countries in the global south, pushing them farther away and potentially into the hands of China. 

Also, regarding oil, Western policies have been beneficial for China and other BRICS countries, as the results include cheaper oil and added incentives for finding new oil trade routes, like crude exports from Brazil to India.

Artificial intelligence has quickly become a polarizing theme, given the enormous potential offered by recent breakthroughs, but also the daunting risks. Are you an AI optimist with regard to global energy industries, and what’s your take on the need for regulation?

Yes, I am a technology optimist in general, and that applies also specifically to AI. I believe it can improve productivity in intellectual disciplines, including analytical tasks in the energy industry. Tasks like seismic interpretation and grid stabilization will be more efficient using AI. But it will also require a lot of human intellectual effort to make relevant training data available and to calibrate answers for relevant output. Overall, AI will lower the threshold for intellectual queries, thus increasing the total consumption of queries, which again drives greater energy consumption. But there are limits to this growth, also for AI, including the industrial capacity to produce AI chips. We can therefore estimate, with a relatively high degree of precision, the impact of AI on energy consumption.

Among the countless books written about energy industries and markets over the years, which one stands out as your favorite?

Well, candidates could be classics such as ‘The Prize’ by Daniel Yergin, ‘Energy – A Human History’ by Richard Rhodes, ‘Crude Volatility’ by Robert McNally, and ‘Energy Transitions’ by Vaclav Smil. But while reading these books, I find myself nodding my head in agreement, but also shaking my head in disagreement, feeling that some messages are outdated or poorly substantiated. I therefore hesitate to choose any of these as my absolute favorite. Another classic however, which is not specifically focused on energy industries but is still very relevant for any industry exposed to major technology shifts, is ‘The Innovator’s Dilemma’ by Clayton Christensen. He studies how new technologies disrupt industries, and how players adapt or disappear. I’ll gladly call that book my favorite in the genre!

Jarand Rystad, Founder and CEO.

For further reading, explore our recent insights:

• From trade tensions to transition: China’s Gas & LNG policy in Q2 2025 – policy shifts in China’s gas & LNG sector and implications for global supply and pricing.

• Gas & LNG: Northern Summer Fundamentals 2025 – a mid-year snapshot of supply shifts, price drivers and regional demand in the Northern Hemisphere.

• Forecasting future gas prices and evaluating the impact of US energy protectionism – an outlook on how geopolitical, regulatory and market dynamics may shape gas pricing through 2050.