A decade after the Paris Agreement, the world is still far from meeting its climate ambitions. Oil and gas continue to supply roughly 80% of global energy demand — and demand is still rising — even as geopolitical tensions and policy shifts reshape markets.

In the near term, supply is accelerating. Global liquids production is set to grow by more than 3 million bpd this year, with further expansion expected next year. At the same time, demand growth is slowing sharply, signaling a shift from recent tight markets toward structural oversupply.

Beyond the short term, bigger structural change is underway. Oil will remain essential for materials such as plastics and lubricants, but demand for oil as an energy source is expected to peak in the early 2030s before entering long-term decline. Steep field decline rates will continue to drive boom-and-bust cycles, keeping profitability volatile even in a shrinking market.

The path forward is highly uncertain. Technology, policy, economic cycles, and consumer behavior could reshape trajectories faster than traditional forecasts anticipate. Under more aggressive transition scenarios, cumulative upstream capital expenditure over the next two decades could fall by around 65%, asset valuations could decline by up to 80%, and fossil fuel revenues for producing countries could drop by more than 80%.

In an environment defined by uncertainty, relying on a single forecast is no longer sufficient. Scenario-based analysis is critical for testing resilience, managing risk, and positioning strategically for multiple possible futures.