The arrival of the new year was met with extraordinary geopolitical drama, as US forces launched a late-night raid on Caracas and took Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro into custody. Energy markets have been abuzz in the aftermath of this unprecedented development, as strategists and pundits try to assess the wider implications – for Venezuela, for international relations, and for heavy oil balances. What’s your main takeaway?

Our team has been working diligently to assess the potential short- and long-term ramifications of these dramatic developments. We have already released eight separate research notes on Venezuela this month, and these fundamental analyses have led to more than 3,000 international media citations. Our research indicates that Venezuelan crude exports could recover by up to 300,000 barrels per day over the next two to three years, a level which is unlikely to have a dramatic impact on the oil market. In the longer term, the ambition to redevelop Venezuela’s oil sector to its full potential of 3 million bpd will likely require more than $180 billion in investments. It will be a big challenge to incentivize oil companies to make such investments, as other resources globally could be more attractive from a return and political stability point of view. A more immediate consequence of the turmoil in Venezuela, however, lies in the implications for the geopolitical order and the respect for international law. 

Amid an ongoing trade impasse with the US, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has been in China for trade talks. How might this shake up energy markets?

Overall, I don’t foresee a “shake-up” per se, but the two countries can find mutual benefits through increasing bilateral trade and cooperation in the energy space. China needs Canadian oil, LNG and uranium, while Canada needs the green supply chain from China as well as selected critical materials. They can also benefit from cooperating on climate policies, and together they will represent a strong force on these matters.

Looking at your travel itinerary for 2026, have you already identified any specific energy events you aim to prioritize?

Speaking of Venezuela, my first intercontinental trip this year will be to that neighborhood, to visit Panama, Colombia and Trinidad. Among other things, I will deliver the keynote address at an international energy conference in Port of Spain in late January. I also have a keynote address at OTC Asia in Kuala Lumpur near the end of March. Asia continues to be the fastest-growing continent measured in energy demand, underlining the importance of following the region closely. 

Jarand Rystad, Founder and CEO

Explore more insights:

Flash Edition | Trump & Energy: Venezuela’s long road back
Download the latest Trump & Energy Flash Edition report, spotlighting Venezuela in light of recent geopolitical developments, and what it would take for the country's oil production to bounce back.

Podcast | A glimpse into energy in 2026, with Jarand Rystad
In this episode of Let’s Talk Energy, Jarand Rystad shares his outlook for the energy system in 2026. The discussion explores a potential year of energy abundance, what it could mean for prices, and how constraints, investment cycles and geopolitics may shape risks and opportunities across oil, gas and power markets.