As momentum builds toward COP30, Rystad Energy has analyzed over 400 historical and updated NDCs to assess how well the global energy system aligns with the Paris Agreement goals. Most submissions focus on short-term decarbonization in power, energy and transportation, setting clear targets for renewables and electric vehicle (EV) adoption, with alternative fuels and carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS) for hard-to-abate sectors.

This year, signatory countries are submitting their commitments under NDC 3.0. While many targets seem more ambitious, much of this reflects a shift in timelines from 2030 to 2035, rather than any stronger policy action. According to our assessment, the latest NDCs project a trajectory consistent with a 1.7 °C pathway by 2035. Full implementation of these pledges could reduce emissions by about 25% (10 Gt) from current levels by 2035.

According to our analysis, the NDCs may be implemented by delivering on the three tasks of the energy transition:

Task 1 – Clean up and grow the power sector: Half of pledged reductions come from cleaning up the power sector, underscoring the rapid growth of solar and wind alongside storage and grid upgrades. Progress is on track with record annual additions of renewable energy, but bottlenecks in permitting, transmission and market saturation risks continue to slow deployment.

Task 2 – Electrify almost everything: Electrifying transport, buildings and industry contributes to 43% of the emission reductions needed to implement the NDCs by 2035. EVs now account for a quarter of new car sales, up from just 2% five years ago, yet scaling depends on charging infrastructure and policy support. Heat pumps are on the rise, though high power prices remain a key headwind in some regions. Early pilots in steel and aluminum indicate industrial electrification is gaining ground in the medium term.

Task 3 – Clean up the residual: Tackling the last 5% of emissions will require scaling CCUS, hydrogen and bioenergy. These technologies are now featured in more NDCs, and projects are underway, but deployment lags well behind renewables and electrification. Achieving long-term impact demands a step change in scale and pace.

In addition, we have created the Rystad Energy NDC Relative Risk Index, which offers a clear framework to better understand the relative risk of a country to fully implement its climate commitments. Low-risk countries like Switzerland, Sweden, and Finland, representing 22% of the index, pair high incomes and political stability with electrification and renewable energy sources. High-risk countries (44%), such as Uganda, Ethiopia and Niger, face structural barriers, including low income, fragile governance, low electrification, and rising emissions, making NDC delivery uncertain. One-third of economies fall into a middle category that includes China, Vietnam, and South Korea, where industrial growth and electrification coexist, showcasing rapid technological adoption and structural modernization despite their carbon-intensive energy systems.

Overall, the diversity of these risk profiles emphasizes the need for coordinated action. Leading nations are spearheading more ambitious net-zero initiatives, signaling a transition to the next energy era. Achieving success in this endeavor hinges on political stability, economic resilience and sustained progress across the three interdependent tasks of decarbonization.

Author: 

Erica Esatyana
Senior Analyst, Energy Scenarios
Erica.Esatyana@rystadenergy.com

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