Chokepoints under pressure: The fragile lifelines of global energy

Rystad Energy’s latest analysis reveals a growing threat to global energy security as the world’s five most critical maritime chokepoints, narrow sea routes that handle the bulk of global oil and gas transit, face escalating risks from conflict, piracy and environmental hazards. In 2023, these chokepoints carried an estimated 71.3 million barrels per day (bpd) of oil and petroleum products and about 26 billion cubic feet per day (Bcfd) of liquefied natural gas. By 2024, that volume had dropped to 65 million bpd for oil and petroleum and 24.8 Bcfd for LNG, a clear sign of rising instability in some of the world’s most strategically important waters.

While some of the recent volume decline is linked to temporary shocks, such as Houthi attacks offshore Yemen or Iran-Israel tensions, there are also signs of a longer-term structural shift, with flows being rerouted through the Cape of Good Hope and alternative pipelines as traders and governments adapt to instability. The US, with its growing domestic production, remains less exposed than Asia and Europe, which rely heavily on the Strait of Hormuz and the Strait of Malacca for transport, leaving China acutely vulnerable.

We have identified the five chokepoints most at risk, assessed the threats they face and outlined the far-reaching consequences for global energy markets. Any disruption at these chokepoints could shatter supply chains, trigger sharp spikes in energy prices and inflict severe economic damage worldwide,

Meanwhile, the sharp rise in insurance premiums and freight rates shows that markets are already pricing in maritime instability, though a full closure of any major chokepoint would still trigger extreme price volatility and test the resilience of global energy supply chains. About three-fourths of the world’s oil demand is transported through maritime chokepoints, with approximately one-fourth passing through the Strait of Malacca and one-fifth transited via the Strait of Hormuz.

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Strait of Malacca
The Strait of Malacca is the world’s largest trade chokepoint, handling approximately 24 million bpd of oil and gas. This narrow passage between the Indian Ocean and the Pacific Ocean is a critical corridor for transporting most of the Middle Eastern crude oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) to Asia, including major consumers China and Japan. China accounts for the largest share of crude and condensate imports through this route, representing 50% of the total volume, while Saudi Arabia is the leading exporter, contributing with 25% of the share. Since the pandemic, oil and gas flow through the Strait had increased by 2.1 million bpd as of 2024. Although the route is known for piracy and theft, no major incidents have been reported this year.

Strait of Hormuz
The Strait of Hormuz, situated between Iran to the north and Oman and the United Arab Emirates to the south, is particularly vital. Approximately one-fifth of the world’s maritime oil and condensate trade, along with nearly half of the Middle East’s daily oil and condensate production — around 14.0 million bpd — passes through this narrow waterway to major Asian markets such as China and India.

To be more precise, about half of Saudi Arabia and the UAE’s daily oil and condensate exports, and roughly one-fourth of China’s daily oil and condensate demand, are shipped through the strait. It is also a key route for LNG, with about one-fifth of globally traded LNG volumes passing through it. Qatar exports about two-thirds of its daily gas production, roughly 16.3 Bcfd, through the strait to countries including China, India and South Korea. In the past five years, China’s LNG imports via the Strait of Hormuz have increased by approximately 2.5 times, reaching 2.7 Bcfd.

The strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz was underscored during the recent Iran-Israel conflict, when Iran’s parliament proposed a bill to close it, although the plan was reportedly deferred. If the strait were to be closed, it could disrupt nearly half of Middle Eastern oil exports, severely impacting global oil and gas transportation. This would likely lead to a sharp increase in global oil prices and raise energy import costs for dependent nations, affecting the entire oil and gas supply chain,

To reduce such risks, countries in the region have developed alternative oil transport routes. These include Saudi Arabia’s East West Crude Pipeline, which has a capacity of 5 million bpd, the UAE’s Abu Dhabi Crude Oil Pipeline, with capacity of 1.8 million bpd, and Iran’s Goreh Jask pipeline, which provides an additional export route bypassing the Strait of Hormuz.

Suez Canal and Bab El Mandeb
The Bab el-Mandeb Strait has become the Middle East’s second major chokepoint and another potential threat to the stability of global oil and gas trade. The narrow waterway connects the Red Sea with the Gulf of Aden and the Arabian Sea, serving as a critical route for ships transiting between the Suez Canal and the Indian Ocean. Egypt’s Suez Canal, along with the 2.5 million bpd SUMED pipeline, link the Red Sea to the Mediterranean, forming a vital corridor for global energy flows.

Before a wave of Houthi attacks targeting commercial vessels and tankers in late 2023, the Bab el-Mandeb Strait accounted for around 12 percent of global seaborne oil trade. However, the surge in attacks in December 2023 caused daily shipping volumes through the Strait to drop by nearly 50 percent within just six months. Traffic has remained below normal levels ever since.

A potential full closure of the strait would force vessels originating in the Gulf of Aden to bypass the Suez Canal entirely, redirecting them around the Cape of Good Hope. This detour significantly increases voyage times and freight costs, adding further pressure to already strained global energy supply chains.

Turkish Straits
The Turkish Straits, a narrow and strategically critical maritime route connecting the Mediterranean Sea and the Black Sea, are key to global energy transportation. Dividing Europe and Asia and fully controlled by Turkiye, the route consists of the Bosporus and Dardanelles waterways. It serves as a major transit point for oil and LNG shipments from the Caspian region and Russia to both Asian and European markets.

The Turkish Straits account for roughly 5 percent of global maritime oil trade, underscoring their strategic importance. In 2023, approximately 3.5 million bpd of crude oil and 0.5 Bcfd of LNG passed through the straits. Similar volumes are projected for 2025.

However, oil flows through the Turkish Straits have fluctuated in recent years. Following the COVID-19 pandemic, transit volumes declined from 3.5 million bpd in 2020 to 3.4 million bpd in 2021, dropping further to 3.2 million bpd in 2022 due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which reduced Ukrainian export volumes by an estimated 100,000 bpd. Despite these challenges, flows rebounded to 3.4 million bpd in 2023 and are expected to remain steady through 2024, although full data for the year has yet to be reported.

Russia remains the largest contributor to oil traffic through this corridor, accounting for around 40 percent of the crude transported. About one-sixth of the crude shipped through the straits is delivered to Turkiye itself.

Alternative routes exist to ease potential disruptions. The Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline carries oil from Azerbaijan’s Caspian fields to Turkiye’s Mediterranean port of Ceyhan. Another option is the Iraq-Turkiye pipeline, which had been closed but was recently planned to reopen for crude oil exports from Iraq’s Kurdistan region.

Despite their importance, the Turkish Straits face several operational and geopolitical risks. The narrow and winding nature of the waterways increases the risk of maritime accidents and oil spills, while regional tensions and political interference continue to pose potential threats to the route's stability and security.

Cape of Good Hope
The Cape of Good Hope, located at the southern tip of South Africa, has emerged as a critical alternative route for global maritime trade, now handling 8 percent to 10 percent of worldwide shipping traffic. Total oil flows through this route dropped to 6 million bpd in 2023, down from 7 million bpd in 2021, mainly due to reduced demand from China, lower production levels across African nations, and a shift by countries like India toward Russian crude suppliers.

However, the situation changed dramatically in 2024. Oil traffic along the Cape of Good Hope route surged by nearly 50 percent to 8.7 million bpd, as escalating Houthi militant attacks in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and Suez Canal prompted major shipping companies to reroute vessels to avoid the Red Sea. Roughly 40 percent of the crude transported via the cape was destined for China, with about one-third originating from the US and nearly one-fourth from South America. Additionally, Middle Eastern producers such as Saudi Arabia and Iraq diverted significant volumes of crude intended for Europe through the cape instead of the Suez Canal.

Despite higher freight costs and longer transit times, traders increasingly prefer the Cape of Good Hope due to its lower security risks. Compared to other global chokepoints, it currently represents one of the safest maritime routes for crude oil transport.

Contacts

Mrinal Bhardwaj
Senior Analyst, Upstream Research
Phone:  +91 97 42 06 16 16
Mrinal.Bhardwaj@rystadenergy.com    

Laura R. Skaug
Media Relations Manager 
Phone: +47 973 17 112
laura.skaug@rystadenergy.com 

About Rystad Energy

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