Global onshore satellite-detected upstream methane emissions increase in 2025, bucking recent reduction trend

Global satellite-detected methane emissions from the onshore upstream oil and gas sector ticked up late last year and into the first quarter of 2025, reversing a steady decline since 2020. Rystad Energy analysis, supported by satellite detection, highlights stark regional differences: China’s emissions surged nearly one-third year on year, while the US recorded a smaller rise of 4%. Russia, on the other hand, posted a 5% drop in the first quarter, largely due to the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict leading to lower production volumes.

Detected methane plumes – clouds of concentrated methane (CH₄) gas released into the atmosphere – revealed variations in emission density and rate for different regions. Roughly 45,000 plumes were detected in the first quarter of 2025, increasing by 14,000 from the same quarter in 2024. These plumes carried a combined carbon footprint of about 45 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO₂e) – a 40% increase year on year.

A large portion of detected plumes can be seen in areas such as the Middle East, North Africa, China , Russia and North America – and several countries within these regions have high production volumes, which result in low methane intensity despite high absolute methane emissions. Conversely, aging infrastructure at processing facilities, compressor stations and well operations could be contributing a disproportionately high methane footprint in several Central Asian and North African countries relative to their share of global hydrocarbon production.

Upstream oil and gas production is a major source of emissions, responsible for about 20% of all human-caused methane leaks into the atmosphere. The biggest challenge is detection but, once found, most can be fixed, unlike carbon dioxide [CO₂], which largely comes from combustion and is harder to avoid. That’s why methane reduction has become a top priority for producers. With a shorter atmospheric lifespan but far greater warming potential than CO₂, companies need to shift from long-term strategies to immediate action, making methane abatement a near-term focus. A lot of large leak events are also not found in most exploration and production [E&P] company reporting, which needs to be addressed,

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Rystad Energy’s granularity with data shows that methane emissions follow a seasonal pattern in most countries. These variations likely reflect colder-climate impacts on operations and demand, regional differences and the timing of abatement efforts, but they could also be caused by detection-related factors such as cloud cover, wind, humidity and other atmospheric conditions that affect satellite measurements. China exemplifies this, recording the highest methane emissions from oil and gas production in 2025. Emissions in China typically peak in early winter and dip in summer, closely tracking natural gas production cycles. Despite a 50% increase in gas production since 2018, satellite-detected methane emissions have declined by 30%, indicating improved operational practices. This trend aligns with initiatives by state-owned oil companies China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) and Sinopec, which launched methane reduction programs in 2019 and 2020, respectively.

Methane emissions also increased in the West, driven largely by significant plumes over the Bakken shale in January, despite a milder winter than in 2022 and 2023. In the US, methane abatement has been a political priority, with measures such as the Waste Emission Charge finalized under the Biden administration in late 2024. However, the policy applied only to reported emissions, not those detected by satellites, and it was overturned in February 2025.

As the US shale industry has matured, the environmental impact of consolidation in 2023 and 2024 will be closely monitored. Large public E&P companies have expanded the scope of abatement programs, but their future under the Trump administration remains uncertain – especially with the movements to remove the US Environmental Protection Agency’s Greenhouse Gas Reporting Program. Rystad Energy expects minimal impact from new flaring restrictions.

Despite the limited scope of federal abatement policies and the likelihood of policy rollbacks, the US shale industry is expected to keep reducing its emissions intensity, building on the notable improvements achieved in 2023. Preliminary 2024 data from the Lower 48 supports this outlook, with methane emissions predicted to remain stable compared to 2023, even as production grows further.

Global figures point to an increase in the first quarter of 2025, but certain nations have continued the downward trend observed in previous years. Iraq, for example, has steadily reduced methane emissions year-on-year since 2019, during a period when oil production declined and gas output increased. However, in the first quarter of this year, emissions surged nearly 50% compared to the same period in the previous year – a rise likely linked to activity in the Zagros Foldbelt Basin in the Middle East, including flaring and production ramp-up.

In South and Central Asia, India, Uzbekistan and Pakistan all recorded declines in methane emissions between 2022 and 2024. After hitting record lows last year, emissions in the first quarter of 2025 rebounded closer to early 2023 levels. In Uzbekistan, the startup of the Tolibtepa gas field in 2023 contributed to higher emissions amid increased production. In India and Pakistan, methane levels show strong seasonal patterns, with almost no plumes detected during the summer months – a trend largely independent of production. India is also stepping up its focus on methane management, with plans underway for a National Inventory Management System, signaling a move toward more comprehensive and systematic tracking of greenhouse gas emissions.

Contacts

Patrick King
Vice President, Emissions Research      
Phone: +47 24 00 42 00
patrick.king@rystadenergy.com

Jon-Erik Remme
Senior Vice President, Emissions Research      
Phone: +47 99 15 97 98
jon.erik.remme@rystadenergy.com

Julie Johanne Uv
Analyst, Emissions Research      
Phone: +47 24 00 42 00
julie.uv@rystadenergy.com

Kartik Selvaraju
Media Relations Manager 
Phone: +65 8779 4619
kartik.selvaraju@rystadenergy.com 

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