Kuwait plans fifteen-fold renewable generation boost, but targets need more time

Kuwait is grappling with relentless heat, aging infrastructure and unplanned power outages, prompting major investments in grid reliability. Today, renewables account for less than 1% of Kuwait’s electricity generation, but the country aims to grow that to 15% by 2030, with natural gas serving as a crucial transitional fuel. However, Rystad Energy analysis shows this lofty target could be out of reach. Our current projections estimate renewable capacity will only reach 3.3 gigawatts (GW) by 2030, just 7% of Kuwait’s power generation, with a renewables share of 15% by 2035, a more realistic target. By that time, renewable capacity is expected to exceed 11 GW, accounting for around 20% of Kuwait’s power generation.

Currently, Kuwait has 21 GW of installed capacity, but only about 17 GW of this is reliably available during peak months - due to planned maintenance and the age of its plants. With temperatures climbing as high as 50 degrees celsius in recent years and demand peaking at 17.7 GW in July, scheduled power cuts began two months earlier than the previous year, while unplanned outages added further strain, creating shortages of more than 1.5 GW during peak demand in May.

Blackouts in Kuwait have underscored the strain on the country’s power system, making imports unavoidable if such outages persist. As Kuwait modernizes and turns to renewables to address these challenges, high-profile events like the 2025 Iberian outage have raised questions about the reliability of renewable energy. Still, it would be myopic to dismiss the capabilities of renewables outright. Kuwait has plans to invest heavily in solar PV, for instance, benefiting from a natural advantage of more than 3,300 hours of sunlight each year. This abundant sunlight supports PV output of 4.6 to 4.9 kilowatt-hours (kWh) per kilowatt-peak per day, helping to meet peak afternoon demand when electricity use is highest,

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As this transition takes place, gas is set to play a vital role in Kuwait’s energy future as the nation expands its use of renewable energy. Rystad Energy’s analysis indicates that Kuwaiti gas power generation is set to increase by 17% to 77 terawatt-hours (TWh) by 2030. As a result, gas production is expected to rise by 38%, while overall gas demand is forecast to increase by 30% in the next five years.

The increase in demand will be covered by a combination of rising domestic gas production and ongoing liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports, ensuring round-the-clock supply. Examples of this can be seen in Kuwait's planning of five large-scale gas-fired power plants that will add 18 GW of capacity, lifting total gas power capacity to more than 32 GW by 2035, which is up from 14 GW today. On the import side, state-owned Kuwait Petroleum Corporation (KPC) have signed a 15-year LNG sale and purchase agreement with QatarEnergy, securing up to 3 million tonnes per annum of supply.

Kuwait is focused on reducing domestic oil consumption by gradually replacing oil with gas in its power generation mix, which currently accounts for 40% of its energy needs. The main goal is to free up more crude for export, as oil sales remain the backbone of Kuwait's economy and provide the bulk of its government revenue. By shifting its power sector toward gas, the nation aims to maximize export earnings, strengthen its fiscal position and secure long-term revenue streams in the face of rising domestic power demand.

Kuwait’s annual gas demand is currently between 24 and 25 billion cubic meters (Bcm), with the power sector consuming the largest share. Around 40% of this demand is met through LNG imports, while associated gas production supplies about 35%. This reliance on associated gas exposes Kuwait to OPEC+ crude output cuts, directly affecting gas availability. To mitigate this risk, the country has invested heavily in non-associated gas through onshore developments and offshore exploration, achieving notable progress in recent years. Non-associated gas now contributes nearly 600 million cubic feet per day, or about 25% of total demand, with all volumes currently coming from the onshore Jurassic project, located in Kuwait’s north.

Contacts

Nishant Kumar
Analyst, Renewables & Power Research     
Phone: +971 4 594 3846
nishant.kumar@rystadenergy.com  

Aditya Saraswat
Senior Vice President, Research Director MENA     
Phone: +971 4 594 3846
aditya.saraswat@rystadenergy.com

Rahul Choudhary
Vice President, Upstream Research     
Phone: +91 97 42 06 16 16
rahul.choudhary@rystadenergy.com   

Kartik Selvaraju
Media Relations Manager 
Phone: +65 8779 4619
kartik.selvaraju@rystadenergy.com 

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