Southeast Asia’s onshore wind capacity set to reach 26 GW by 2030

The onshore wind sector has historically witnessed mild growth in Southeast Asia (SEA) since the start of the decade due to a combination of regulatory hurdles, weak grid infrastructure, high costs associated with developing local supply chains, and persistent reliance on cheaper fossil fuels like coal, which are perceived as more stable. However, this could change, with Rystad Energy’s analysis projecting onshore wind capacity in SEA to climb from 6.5 gigawatts (GW) in 2024 to 26 GW by 2030, an increase of 19.5 GW. This resurgence is fueled by a combination of short-term policy initiatives such as auctions, project awards and attractive feed-in tariffs (FITs) alongside the rising acceptance of mainland Chinese wind turbines.

This acceleration in onshore wind installations comes at a crucial time, as countries across the region aim to expand renewable energy adoption and advance their energy transition. Government policies are further boosting momentum, with several new regulations introduced this year to support development. With more mature technology, falling equipment costs and improved performance even at lower wind speeds, onshore wind is increasingly a competitive option for meeting renewable energy targets. An additional consideration is leveraging these projects to power data centers, as onshore wind can offer a favorable generation profile for many 24/7 applications, further enhancing their value.

Though far outpacing the 1.1 GW addition seen in SEA between 2021 and 2024, a closer look identifies some new trends, with Vietnam continuing to be the largest market despite policy-driven fluctuations, and the Philippines and Thailand following closely behind. Meanwhile, Laos is turning to onshore wind energy for the first time to diversify its power mix and enhance export capacity, following the commissioning of Southeast Asia’s largest wind project in August, built solely with the purpose of exporting power to Vietnam.

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Despite recent momentum, Southeast Asia stands to make significant gains by learning from previous boom-and-bust policy cycles. Unlike solar, which benefits from a relatively simple and modular supply chain, wind power projects demand more complex logistics, infrastructure and technical expertise – necessitating time for ecosystem development and a steady project pipeline for sustained growth.

Countries such as Laos, Cambodia and potentially Indonesia have an opportunity to learn from the experiences of Vietnam, Thailand and the Philippines. In these markets, a rapid rollout of initial projects (about 4 GW in Vietnam, 1.5 GW in Thailand and 400 MW in the Philippines) within a short timeframe was followed by a prolonged project drought due to a lack of policy continuity, resulting in no new construction in Vietnam since 2021, in Thailand since 2019 and in the Philippines since 2015.

Additionally, recent payment disputes in Vietnam between state utility Vietnam Electricity (EVN) and wind project developers have further undermined investor confidence. Most of these challenges stem from proposals to retroactively reduce Feed-in-tariff (FIT) rates for operational projects by imposing new acceptance requirements. This further compounded grid curtailment issues affecting both solar and wind projects that came online during the boom years between 2018 and 2021.

While Southeast Asia’s onshore wind sector is poised for rapid expansion, its long-term success will hinge on consistent policies, stronger grid integration and establishing local supply chains. Continued government support and collaboration within the industry are crucial to building a resilient wind market and ensuring wind energy becomes a key pillar of the region’s renewable transition.

Contacts

Raksit Pattanapitoon
Lead Analyst, Renewables & Power (APAC)
Phone: +66994495495
raksit.pattanapitoon@rystadenergy.com

Nevi Cahya Winofa
Analyst, Renewables and Power (APAC)
Phone: +62 811 884 8899
nevi.winofa@rystadenergy.com

Rohit Pradeep Patel
Vice President, Renewables & Power Research
Phone: +91 97 42 06 16 16
rohit.patel@rystadenergy.com
 

Kartik Selvaraju
Media Relations Manager 
Phone: +65 8779 4619
kartik.selvaraju@rystadenergy.com 

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