Advisory / Advanced modeling
Anticipate and confidently respond to market shifts with state-of-the-art predictive analytics. We use system dynamics, linear and non-linear optimization, predictive analytics and scenario planning to produce accurate forecasts. These models assess the impact of different pathways, helping clients plan effectively and manage risk in uncertain environments.
Our Advanced Models
The model at a glance:
The Dynamic Oil Price Model simulates the short-term oil market forecasting crude and oil product prices on a monthly basis. The model employs system dynamics modeling where today’s oil price triggers decisions that will impact the future oil price and market responses. By capturing the complex relationship between price, supply, demand, refining, inventory and freight it efficiently simulates both shocks and fundamental market responses. This enables users to gain unique insights into market dynamics, optimize their strategies and make informed decisions in the volatile oil market.
Short-term crude and product balances
Monthly pricing on 50+ crude assays and 100+ product quality benchmarks
Crude and oil product inventories levels
Trade flows, freight demand and freight rates development
Market tightness and expected OPEC behavior
The model at a glance:
The Long-term Oil Model forecasts upstream supply based on user-defined demand scenarios, allowing adjustments to factors such as market player behavior, asset costs, production profiles and start-up dates. Utilizing dynamic and agent-based programming techniques, the model generates insights into oil prices and industry developments. This empowers users to make informed investment decisions and devise effective commercial strategies.
Long-term oil price development
Oil supply and cost on an asset level
Required industry investments and operational cost
Required exploration activity and resulting basin creaming curves
Cost of supply on asset and hydrocarbon level
OPEC behavior and country and supply segment competitiveness
Upstream emissions and CO2 prices impact on asset competitiveness
The model at a glance
The Refining System Model provides a comprehensive view of the global market for crude and refined products, empowering users to analyze long-term prices, refinery behavior, investments, trade flows and emissions. By leveraging an innovative combination of system dynamic programming and inverse optimization techniques, the model captures refiners’ profit-maximizing behavior. With thousands of variables and granular data sets covering upstream supply, trade, unit capacities and yield structures, the model provides unique and consistent insights both at a global and a refinery-unit level.
Long-term regional prices of refined petroleum products and crude grades
Outlooks of refinery investments, shutdowns and upgrades
Bottom-up products and crude trade and balances for all refining regions
Refinery competitiveness, including utilization levels and margins
Refinery behavior, including crude preferences and operational mode choices
Refining system emissions
Product and crude stock level outlooks implied by market imbalances
The model at a glance
The Gas Market Model simulates the global gas market across custom demand scenarios with input assumptions on supply, pipelines, LNG infrastructure and contracts. Using input demand at country-level, the model provides granularity by modelling supply and infrastructure on an asset-by-asset level. Leveraging system dynamic techniques and linear programming, the model effectively balances the gas market while adhering to market constraints.
Long-term forecast for main gas hub prices
Gas supply and cost on asset-level
Upstream emissions and CO2 prices impact on asset competitiveness
Gas trade flows with imports and exports on country-level
Required liquefaction and regasification capacity for the given demand scenario
Liquefaction plant competitiveness, including utilization levels
LNG shipping demand
The model at a glance:
The Coal Market Model generates long-term price, supply and trade flow outlooks. Utilizing a cost-of-supply methodology and advanced linear programming to model trade, users can simulate an unlimited number of scenarios. With global coverage spanning all mines, the impact of demand, costs and trade routes on the global coal market can be analyzed.
Long-term coal hub prices development for all main hubs
Future coal supply on a mine level
Cost of supply on a mine level
Global trade flows with imports and exports on country level
Contacts
Tailored solutions for corporate challenges
Our experts are here to help you every step of the way
Industries we serve
Energy companies
We foster strong partnerships with leading oil and gas corporations, utilities and providers of power and heat, along with various energy generation and extraction entities.
Supply chain and infrastructure
We cover the entire energy value chain, from upstream and downstream oil and gas operations to power generation and consumption, storage supply chain and energy infrastructure.
Industry and energy consumers
We forge strong partnerships across various industries, including CCUS, fertilizer, mining and metals, steel and aluminum, petrochemicals and others.
Transportation
We help transportation companies navigating the policy landscape, select the optimal fuel strategy and evaluate new technologies that can help optimizing operations while cutting emissions in a cost-efficient manner.
Investors
We build strong partnerships with key players in financial sectors including private equity, insurance, hedge funds and banks.
Governments and organizations
We establish strong partnerships with governments, NGOs, industry organizations and other entities.
Contact us to gain a trusted advisor
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