Advanced modelling

Rystad Energy is at the forefront of advanced modelling, offering sophisticated techniques such as system dynamic modelling and linear/non-linear optimization which provide deep insights into the energy market's complexities for strategic decision-making.

Advisory / Advanced modeling

Rystad Energy is at the forefront of advanced modelling, offering sophisticated techniques such as system dynamic modelling and linear/non-linear optimization which provide deep insights into the energy market's complexities for strategic decision-making.

 We employ state-of-the-art predictive analytics and scenario planning to create models that accurately forecast market trends, enabling clients to anticipate and respond to market shifts with confidence. Advanced modelling services are designed to construct robust analytical frameworks that support strategic decision-making and risk management for our clients.

Advanced supply and price outlook models

Minimize risk and enhance decision-making by assessing your future energy market scenario. 

Rystad Energy's advanced supply models provide comprehensive global price and supply outlooks rooted in market fundamentals. These models enable users to build custom scenarios and perform ‘what-if’ analyses to assess the market impact on a monthly and annual basis. Leveraging these powerful tools, users can make informed investment decisions and develop robust strategies by gaining a deeper understanding of the future gas, oil, refining and coal markets. 

Feature highlights:

  • Intuitive user interface.  Easy-to-use web and Excel-based interfaces to edit inputs, run the model, and analyze outputs. 
  • Scenario builder. Edit input assumptions to create own views of the energy markets and conduct ‘what-if’ sensitivity analysis. 
  • Access to our experts. Full training program with access to our team of market and modeling experts. 
  • High granularity. Designed bottom-up using our extensive databases, all models enable detailed and granular analysis. 
  • Advanced data exploration and exports. Various charting and filtering options to easily analyze data. Export to Excel or a 3rd party platform to incorporate into your workflow. 

Our expertise

We deliver expertise across different core offerings:

The model at a glance

The Refining System Model provides a comprehensive view of the global market for crude and refined products, empowering users to analyze long-term prices, refinery behavior, investments, trade flows, and emissions. By leveraging an innovative combination of system dynamic programming and inverse optimization techniques, the model captures refiners’ profit-maximizing behavior. With thousands of variables and granular data sets covering upstream supply, trade, unit capacities, and yield structures, the model provides unique and consistent insights both at a global and a refinery unit level.

Long-term regional prices of refined petroleum products and crude grades.

Outlooks of refinery investments, shutdowns, and upgrades.

Bottom-up products and crude trade and balances for all refining regions.

Refinery competitiveness, including utilization levels and margins.

Refinery behavior, including crude preferences and operational mode choices.

Refining system emissions.

Product and crude stock level outlooks implied by market imbalances.

The model at a glance

The Refining System Model provides a comprehensive view of the global market for crude and refined products, empowering users to analyze long-term prices, refinery behavior, investments, trade flows, and emissions. By leveraging an innovative combination of system dynamic programming and inverse optimization techniques, the model captures refiners’ profit-maximizing behavior. With thousands of variables and granular data sets covering upstream supply, trade, unit capacities, and yield structures, the model provides unique and consistent insights both at a global and a refinery unit level.

Long-term regional prices of refined petroleum products and crude grades.

Outlooks of refinery investments, shutdowns, and upgrades.

Bottom-up products and crude trade and balances for all refining regions.

Refinery competitiveness, including utilization levels and margins.

Refinery behavior, including crude preferences and operational mode choices.

Refining system emissions.

Product and crude stock level outlooks implied by market imbalances.

The model at a glance:

The Dynamic Oil Price Model simulates the short-term oil market forecasting crude and oil product prices on monthly basis. The model employs system dynamics modeling where today’s oil price triggers decisions that will impact the future oil price and market responses. By capturing the complex relationship between price, supply, demand, refining, inventory, and freight it efficiently simulates both shocks and fundamental market responses. This enables users to gain unique insights into market dynamics, optimize their strategies, and make informed decisions in the volatile oil market.

Short-term crude and product balances.

Monthly pricing on 50+ crude assays and 100+ product quality benchmarks.

Crude and oil product inventories levels.

Trade flows, freight demand and freight rates development.

Market tightness and expected OPEC behavior.

The model at a glance:

The Long Term Oil Model forecasts upstream supply based on user-defined demand scenarios, allowing adjustments to factors such as market player behavior, asset costs, production profiles, and start-up dates. Utilizing dynamic and agent-based programming techniques, the model generates insights into oil prices and industry developments. This empowers users to make informed investment decisions and devise effective commercial strategies.

Long-term oil price development.

Oil supply and cost on asset-level.

Required industry investments and operational cost.

Required exploration activity and resulting basin creaming curves.

Cost of supply on asset and hydrocarbon level.

OPEC behavior and country/supply segment competitiveness.

Upstream emissions and CO2 prices impact on asset competitiveness.

The model at a glance:

The Coal Market Model generates long-term price, supply, and trade flow outlooks. Utilizing a cost-of-supply methodology and advanced linear programming to model trade, users can simulate an unlimited number of scenarios. With global coverage spanning all mines, the impact of demand, costs and trade routes on the global coal market can be analyzed.

Long-term coal hub prices development for all main hubs.

Future coal supply on a mine level.

Cost of supply on a mine level.

Global trade flows with imports and exports on country level.

Our expertise

We deliver expertise across different core offerings:

Refining System Model

  • Long-term regional prices of refined petroleum products and crude grades. 

  • Outlooks of refinery investments, shutdowns, and upgrades. 

  • Bottom-up products and crude trade and balances for all refining regions. 

  • Refinery competitiveness, including utilization levels and margins. 

  • Refinery behavior, including crude preferences and operational mode choices. 

  • Refining system emissions. 

  • Product and crude stock level outlooks implied by market imbalances. 

Gas Market Model

  • Long-term forecast for main gas hub prices. 

  • Gas supply and cost on asset-level. 

  • Upstream emissions and CO2 prices impact on asset competitiveness. 

  • Gas trade flows with imports and exports on country-level. 

  • Required liquefaction and regasification capacity for the given demand scenario. 

  • Liquefaction plant competitiveness, including utilization levels.

Dynamic Oil Price Model

  • Short-term crude and product balances. 

  • Monthly pricing on 50+ crude assays and 100+ product quality benchmarks. 

  • Crude and oil product inventories levels. 

  • Trade flows, freight demand and freight rates development. 

  • Market tightness and expected OPEC behavior.

Long Term Oil Model

  • Long-term oil price development. 

  • Oil supply and cost on asset-level. 

  • Required industry investments and operational cost. 

  • Required exploration activity and resulting basin creaming curves. 

  • Cost of supply on asset and hydrocarbon level. 

  • OPEC behavior and country/supply segment competitiveness. 

  • Upstream emissions and CO2 prices impact on asset competitiveness. 

Coal Market Model

  • Long-term coal hub prices development for all main hubs. 

  • Future coal supply on a mine level. 

  • Cost of supply on a mine level. 

  • Global trade flows with imports and exports on country level.

Meet our experts

Erik Holm Reiso

Senior Partner & Head of EMEA

Clients we work with

Join the talent environment shaping the future of energy

Join our growing team of experts

Our expertise

We deliver expertise across different core offerings:

Advanced supply and price outlook models

  • Intuitive user interface.  Easy-to-use web and Excel-based interfaces to edit inputs, run the model, and analyze outputs.

  • Scenario builder. Edit input assumptions to create own views of the energy markets and conduct ‘what-if’ sensitivity analysis.

  • Access to our experts. Full training program with access to our team of market and modeling experts.

  • High granularity. Designed bottom-up using our extensive databases, all models enable detailed and granular analysis.

  • Advanced data exploration and exports. Various charting and filtering options to easily analyze data. Export to Excel or a 3rd party platform to incorporate into your workflow.

Refining System Model

  • Long-term regional prices of refined petroleum products and crude grades. 

  • Outlooks of refinery investments, shutdowns, and upgrades. 

  • Bottom-up products and crude trade and balances for all refining regions. 

  • Refinery competitiveness, including utilization levels and margins. 

  • Refinery behavior, including crude preferences and operational mode choices. 

  • Refining system emissions. 

  • Product and crude stock level outlooks implied by market imbalances. 

Gas Market Model

  • Long-term forecast for main gas hub prices. 

  • Gas supply and cost on asset-level. 

  • Upstream emissions and CO2 prices impact on asset competitiveness. 

  • Gas trade flows with imports and exports on country-level. 

  • Required liquefaction and regasification capacity for the given demand scenario. 

  • Liquefaction plant competitiveness, including utilization levels.

Dynamic Oil Price Model

  • Short-term crude and product balances. 

  • Monthly pricing on 50+ crude assays and 100+ product quality benchmarks. 

  • Crude and oil product inventories levels. 

  • Trade flows, freight demand and freight rates development. 

  • Market tightness and expected OPEC behavior.

Long Term Oil Model

  • Long-term oil price development. 

  • Oil supply and cost on asset-level. 

  • Required industry investments and operational cost. 

  • Required exploration activity and resulting basin creaming curves. 

  • Cost of supply on asset and hydrocarbon level. 

  • OPEC behavior and country/supply segment competitiveness. 

  • Upstream emissions and CO2 prices impact on asset competitiveness. 

Coal Market Model

  • Long-term coal hub prices development for all main hubs. 

  • Future coal supply on a mine level. 

  • Cost of supply on a mine level. 

  • Global trade flows with imports and exports on country level.