Carbon & Scenarios

Jarand Rystad outlines a five element theory of value creation for companies that operate in a transitioning energy market. He explains why the energy transition is accelerating while oil and gas remain resilient and why disciplined companies can still unlock significant value.

The video discusses how oil demand is likely to plateau in fuels while retaining a long runway in materials such as plastics, lubricants and asphalt. Jarand also highlights the cyclical nature of the industry and how this creates repeat investment windows. He emphasizes that technology and economics tend to dominate politics over the long term and that success in the near term requires accurate forecasting, robust data and strong capital discipline.

Speaker: Jarand Rystad, Founder and CEO, Rystad Energy
Host: Noah Brenner, Rystad Energy
Event: The Debrief, Americas Summit 2025

Jorge León breaks down key findings from Rystad Energy's first House View Report, which sets out a single base case for the next 15 years of the energy landscape. He explains why the transition is clearly picking up speed but oil and gas still play a central role, and why companies should prepare now for a faster evolution.

The video highlights how Rystad Energy's approach differs from multi scenario outlooks by focusing on one conviction driven view. Jorge also discusses how volatility, fragmentation and geopolitical uncertainty are reshaping the pathway ahead and shares a preview of the next report, which will move from a demand focus to a detailed analysis of supply, OPEC behavior and oil prices in a plateauing demand environment.

Speaker: Jorge León, Senior Vice President, Head of Geopolitical Analysis, Rystad Energy
Host: Noah Brenner, Rystad Energy
Event: The Debrief, EMEA Summit 2025

External guest Fiji George explains why US LNG can be environmentally competitive compared with many other gas supply sources, and why this claim must be backed by measurement and verification rather than marketing. He describes what buyers expect from differentiated gas, including independent verification and robust data.

The conversation explores how market design and policy can support credible emissions data and where current proposals add complexity. Fiji discusses the challenge of applying EU methane rules from 2027 to US supply networks where importers do not have direct line of sight to producers. He outlines ideas under discussion such as booking and claim and Cheniere's TRACE in aggregate concept and emphasizes the need for solutions that are scientifically sound, commercially workable and cost effective for all participants in the LNG value chain.

Featuring external speaker: Fiji George, Senior Director for Climate and Sustainability, Cheniere Energy Inc.
Host: Noah Brenner, Rystad Energy
Event: The Debrief, Americas Summit 2025

Lars Eirik Nicolaisen explains how energy scenarios inform long term value creation and investment decisions. Building on his on stage discussion with Shell and Rystad Energy's Chief Economist, he argues that the focus should shift away from predicting the exact peak of oil and gas demand. Instead, companies should understand the shape of the plateau and the slope of the decline that follows.

The video introduces three key areas where value can emerge. These are strategic integration in renewables, renewed opportunities in mature basins such as the North Sea and a positive outlook for US natural gas demand driven by AI and LNG, even under changing US policy. For strategy and finance teams, the session provides a structured way to think about risk, timing and opportunity across the energy transition.

Speaker: Lars Eirik Nicolaisen, Deputy CEO, Rystad Energy
Host: Noah Brenner, Rystad Energy
Event: The Debrief, EMEA Summit 2025

Claudio Galimberti presents Rystad Energy's House View on the global energy system. He conveys a clear message: the transition is accelerating, yet oil and gas remain robust in the overall mix. He explains how electricity's role is expanding and why the energy system is expected to become more efficient over the next 15 years.

The video explores macro drivers that shape energy demand, including aging populations, urbanization and rising protectionism, and links them to broader economic trends. Claudio also explains why renewables keep winning on cost, how OPEC Plus strategy and inventory trends could tilt the oil market towards oversupply in the near term and why global oil demand is more likely to plateau around the early 2030s near 100 to 105 million barrels per day rather than peak and fall sharply.

Speaker: Claudio Galimberti, Chief Economist and Global Director of Market Analysis, Rystad Energy
Host: Noah Brenner, Rystad Energy
Event: The Debrief, Americas Summit 2025