Oil Trading Signals
Exclusive insights - Stay ahead of the market
1
Oil trading insight: The better-performing light end – LPG or naphtha?
"Despite a period of low seasonal demand, propane prices have remained relatively strong over the past month or two, with the Mont Belvieu (MB) propane-to-WTI-crude ratio rising from 0.66 in April to 0.71 in July so far. This is essentially driven by the return of Chinese petrochemical demand, particularly from propane dehydrogenation (PDH) plants.."
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2
Oil trading alert: Canadian oil production unaffected by wildfire
"Wildfire season in Canada has so far this year had almost no impact on the country’s oil production, with Rystad Energy analysis showing that Canadian oil output will remain stable and even see growth towards the end of the year. Weak Asian refining margins may discourage Asian refiners from ordering through the Trans Mountain pipeline expansion project, known as TMX. Both combined may add downward pressure to Canadian heavy’s prices.."
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3
China oil trading alert: Bullish signal from summer travel season yet to reach refiners
"Refinery runs of both the state-owned and independent sectors in mainland China have weakened, with the storage percentage in the independent sector rising by about 3% and 1% for gasoline and diesel, respectively, for the past two weeks. Entering the second week of July (week 28), Rystad Energy’s Realtime road and aviation indicators start to show rising traffic as the traditional summer holiday season in China kicks off. However, the bullish signal from the consumption side is yet to reach domestic refineries.."
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4
Russia Oil Trading Alert: Seaborne crude export fall implies structural decline
"Russian seaborne crude exports fell significantly last week from a 4-week average of 3.4 million barrels per day (bpd) between 3 June and 30 June to around 2.7 million bpd between 1 and 7 July (week 27), according to preliminary estimates based on AIS vessel tracking. The decline is not explained by port maintenance or other external shocks.."
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5
Oil trading insight: Are Saudi OSP cuts a signal for Asian refineries to avoid run cuts?
"Recent cuts by Saudi Arabia to its official selling prices (OSP) for crude oil grades for Asian buyers are a signal to Asian refineries to keep any run cuts at bay, while higher OSPs for buyers in Northwest Europe and the Mediterranean will help Middle East refineries retain product shorts in Europe for their exports.."
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6
Oil Trading Alert: Unplanned outage at Buzzard may have lasted a month
"A recent unplanned outage at the Buzzard asset in the UK North Sea that may have lasted a whole month could have knocked out up to 21,000 barrels per day (bpd) of crude output from the CNOOC International-operated project. The Chinese player reported on 28 May that the asset was experiencing a temporary outage, although no dates were given as to when the outage started and how long it lasted.."
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7
China oil trading alert: Runs stable with upside from regional outages
"With the previous refinery runs cut, gasoline and diesel inventories have been falling since May, with the storage percentage in the independent sector dropping by about 5% and 6% for gasoline and diesel, respectively.."
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8
Oil trading insight: Are Saudi OSP cuts a signal for Asian refineries to avoid run cuts?
"Recent cuts by Saudi Arabia to its official selling prices (OSP) for crude oil grades for Asian buyers are a signal to Asian refineries to keep any run cuts at bay, while higher OSPs for buyers in Northwest Europe and the Mediterranean will help Middle East refineries retain product shorts in Europe for their exports.."
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9
Oil Trading Alert: Unplanned outage at Buzzard may have lasted a month
"A recent unplanned outage at the Buzzard asset in the UK North Sea that may have lasted a whole month could have knocked out up to 21,000 barrels per day (bpd) of crude output from the CNOOC International-operated project. The Chinese player reported on 28 May that the asset was experiencing a temporary outage, although no dates were given as to when the outage started and how long it lasted.."
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10
China oil trading alert: Runs stable with upside from regional outages
"With the previous refinery runs cut, gasoline and diesel inventories have been falling since May, with the storage percentage in the independent sector dropping by about 5% and 6% for gasoline and diesel, respectively.."
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11
Oil trading insight: China’s choice or chance – oil market’s unsolved puzzle for 2H 2024?
"The continued surge in the September Brent contract to $86.4 per barrel on 3 July, after rising by about $9 per barrel in the past month, is being driven by many factors. The resurgence of geopolitical risks and concern over supply disruptions contributed to the recent Brent surge, apart from that, how the market assesses oil demand is also an important factor..."
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12
China oil trading alert: Runs diverge with state-owned strength increasing
"China’s refinery runs cuts in 2Q24 are beginning to show fruits of labor as margins are now improving. With runs level of about 500,000 barrels per day (bpd) lower than the same period last year, gasoline and diesel inventory levels in the independent sector, an important indicator of the domestic market, are dropping to the lower bound range, and domestic product cracks are holding firm..."
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13
Oil trading insight: Will refinery run growth waves rule or ruin summer rally?
"The recent surge in August Brent futures to above $85 per barrel, up by about 10% since 4 June, is being driven by more than one factor. The most important ones are signs of strength in oil demand, especially over the past few weeks, and tensions in both the Middle East and Russia that have failed to defuse despite continued international efforts towards resolution amid the continued Israel-Hamas war and conflict in Ukraine. However..."
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14
Oil Trading Alert: Nigeria oil spill forces production shut-in
"Aiteo has reported an oil spill in the Nembe Creek area in Bayelsa state, Nigeria, leading the Lagos-based oil and gas company to shut in production at assets with combined capacity up to 40,000 barrels per day (bpd). The outage has been confirmed by the absence of any flaring on site since 17 June, which was when the company first reported the spill. Some marginal flaring was observed on 22 June, signaling the resumption of production from the region..."
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15
Oil trading insight: Global oil supply growth stagnates under OPEC+ guidance
"OPEC+ on 2 June announced a highly anticipated extension of its voluntary cuts until the end of the third quarter of this year, along with a forward guidance up to September 2025 in which voluntary cuts are expected to slowly unwind, in equal monthly amounts, starting from October 2024...."
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16
China oil trading alert: Gasoline and diesel cracks leap $4 per barrel
"Mainland China’s weak gasoline and diesel demand has led to runs being cut since February this year. In early May, the government allocated a larger second batch of export quota to boost exports and runs. Now with clean oil product exports trending higher, the domestic fuel surplus has been alleviated, supporting domestic cracks, with an expectation it will incentivize refinery runs to rise..."
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17
Oil trading insight: Brent tumbling in fear of gasoline and diesel; upside ahead near $85
"Brent crude futures dropping to $78 per barrel, the lowest level in four months, paints a picture of OPEC+’s deal turning out to provide a bearish bias to the market. What the market is missing is that summer seasonal demand is still ahead, and it is too premature to conclude that the season will turn out to be very lackluster..."
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18
Oil trading insight: Time to shift focus from OPEC+ driven crude to product markets?
"Brent crude oil front month futures fell to below $82 this past week despite signals that OPEC+ will roll voluntary cuts forward through the third quarter of this year. The reported US crude oil stock build and reduced supply risk as wildfires in Western Canada were.."
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19
Oil Trading Alert: Lack of trade flows points to outage at Tupi field
"Trade flow data in Brazil shows that the Cidade de Paraty floating production storage and offloading (FPSO) vessel, operating for state-owned oil giant Petrobras on the Tupi field in the Santos Basin, has not..."
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20
Oil Trading Alert: Early summer vacation in Europe?
"European flight counts recovered to pre-pandemic levels in mid-April 2024 and recently surged beyond them. The current strength is driven almost exclusively by rising international travel, with activity now above 2019 levels, as discussed..."
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21
Oil Trading Alert: Flaring points to Akpo field restart
"Flaring has resumed from Nigeria’s Akpo assets after a gap of about 35 days, potentially indicating a restart of the facility after a maintenance turnaround during the period...."
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22
Oil Trading Alert: Fight or flight as tensions jet off to new heights
"The initial market reaction to Israel’s missile attack on Iran in the early hours of 19 April could have been a temporary blip, as discussed in our recent note. Passenger aircraft rerouting as airspaces temporarily close could affect jet fuel demand, cracks, and refining margins..."
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23
Oil Trading Alert: Iran is ‘oil strong’? It is not 2018-2019
"The recent escalations in the Middle East have ramifications on a global scale across multiple commodities, but none more immediate than for oil...."
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