You and a team of Rystad Energy analysts have worked tirelessly in recent weeks to release the ambitious 2025 edition of the Global Scenarios Report ahead of the COP30 Summit in Rio. From the vast array of energy trends and developments covered in the report, what stands out to you as the most encouraging observation?

The rapid decarbonization of the power sector, despite political headwinds, stands out as the most encouraging observation. Global electricity supply has grown by 1070 TWh in 2025, and 100% of that growth stems from low carbon energy sources. Furthermore, this this has been achieved with lower investments per unit of electricity than we have seen historically. Looking ahead, more than 100% of new supply will be low carbon, meaning that peak emissions from the power sector is already behind us.   

At the opposite end of the spectrum, what do you regard as the most troubling factor – the energy and sustainability challenge that literally keeps you awake at night?

Well, I sleep well in any case, but still there are some factors worth mentioning. Our mantra has always been to remain fact-based and independent in our approach to energy data. While this can at times attract criticism from some organizations with a strong agenda, our approach has been respected by our clients globally. However, we have seen more recently that the corridor for such an independent approach has become narrower, which troubles me.

Finally, the report includes a revised view from Rystad Energy on when the world will experience “peak oil” – can you extrapolate? 

Our forecast for peak oil demand has now been pushed back to the 2030s, as we observe that policy shifts globally are strengthening the outlook for diesel and gasoline cars, and delaying their eventual displacement by electrical vehicles. Still there are significant uncertainties here. Diesel demand peaked in 2023 at 24.2 million barrels per day and is poised to decline to 23.9 in 2025. Gasoline demand was 26.3 million bpd back in 2019 before falling sharply in 2020 due to the pandemic, but is likely to be back at pre-Covid demand levels this year. Peak gasoline in the US was reached in 2018 and a year later in China, whereas most countries in Europe saw peak demand in 2011 or before. India is now the fastest growing gasoline consumer, followed by Brazil and Turkey, with several other countries in the global south thereafter. Collective demand from these countries needs to outgrow the declines seen in China and Europe for total gasoline demand to rise. Fuel oil is in structural decline, down from 8.2 million bpd in 2010 to only 6.4 million bpd today. Jet fuel, naphtha and LPG are the oil products experiencing structural growth, and they are now projected to grow slightly faster for the next eight years than the decline from the other oil products. Economic cycles will determine the actual timing and extent of the peak, and we might see oscillating peaks during the early 2030s.

Jarand Rystad, Founder and CEO

Continue the conversation in our summit debrief session “Value creation in a transitioning market”, where Jarand sits down with host Noah Brenner to expand on his five-element theory of value creation, the accelerating energy transition and the role of oil and gas in the decades ahead.

For further insights:

Global Energy Scenarios 2025
Dive into our 2025 Global Energy Scenarios for a data-driven view of how policy, technology and capital flows will reshape the global energy mix to 2050.

Rystad Talks Energy | Global Energy Scenarios 2025: The next energy era
Join this on-demand webinar to hear our experts translate the latest scenario results into practical implications for supply, demand and investment across oil, gas and low-carbon solutions.

Brazil’s energy horizon – COP30 special whitepaper
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